Forex Thoughts

GBP/JPY 11 April 2008

2008-04-11T20:21:00.004-05:00

Here the GBP/JPY s still in the bearish mode as evidenced by the PSAR (the blue and the yellow colors) Alos, the bbands are bearsih.
The blooinger squeeze is showing bullsih signal only if it break 204.24
A continuation o fthe bearish movement is possible if it breaks the 198.00 barrier
The qqe might show a bearish signal in the next couple of days.

SHI channel indicator

2007-10-11T09:51:00.000-05:00

As quoted from forex.eazel

http://forex.eazel.com/2006/06/29/shi-channel-indicator/

The SHI Channel indicator and as the all of the channel
indicator uses the highest high and lowest low of the price to determine the
upper and lower bands of the channel.
In the SHI Channel The channel is
calculated according to the given period of calculation and the time frame of
the used chart, and the channel is self-adjusted (Like the Bollinger
Bands).
As you see in figure 1 there are two thick lines that indicates the
upper and lower channel and a dashed center line.

GBP/USD 4hours chart analysis 19 september 2007

2007-09-19T21:03:00.000-05:00

G/U 4 hours chart showed alo the heavy resistance that GBP met at the 50 EMA.

GBP/JPY Daily Analysis 19 September 2007

2007-09-19T21:00:00.000-05:00

G/J had been moving sideways on the daily chart. It had been in the range between 234.50 and 228.50. Breakout above or below these levels will confirm a a short term trend, but for nowI think it is better to stay neutral.

Daily GBP/USD analysis 19 september 2007

2007-09-19T20:59:00.000-05:00

Daily G/$ chart showed the G/$ strongly rejected the 50 MA, and moved all the way to break the 2.0000 figure again today. For now I think if it broke the 50 MA and closed above it then may be we will see a new bull short term trend until 2.0250 may be.

EUR/USD daily chart update

2007-04-03T18:10:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD daily chart. The EUR broke the support at 1.3330. The direction for tomorrow 3rd April 2007 is bearish.

GBP/JPY weekly chart

2007-04-03T10:08:00.000-05:00

GBP is at 234.90 as of the time writing the post. As indicated in the chart, this is a very tough resistance to break. If the price closed above the current level, then more move north is more likely to occur.

GBP/USD Daily Chart update

2007-02-28T12:27:00.000-05:00

If you look at the Doji candle formed on 13th of Feb, you will notice it was followed by a strong bull candle, and the patter repeats as of 19th and 22nd February, and lastly today. This may strongly suggest that we may see a a bullish candle as well. What supports this theory is the strong support line as shown in the chart.

GBP/USD Daily Chart update

2007-02-28T12:13:00.000-05:00

GBP/USD is still maintaining a positive outlook, supported by the strong support level as shown in the chart above, where a support line is drawn from 1.9400 on 13th Feb 2007, to 1.9431 on 19th Feb 2007, 1.9459 on 22nd Feb 2007, and finally 1.9514 today 28th February. Although the bullish outlook remains intact, yet the movement in GBP/USD the last couple of week is chaotic, with lack of strong trend direction.

GBP/USD update

2007-02-23T11:15:00.000-05:00

GBP/USD reached 1.9651, and then started to bounce on the H4 "Long breakout" level. I moved south reaching 1.9617, an then it found a support on the R1 resistance which is 1.9620 today. Now, there may be sideway movement as of today, but further moving north is not yet ruled out completely. As of the time speaking the GBP/USD is 1.9632 again. So, may be it is resuming its movement north (aka bullish movement)

GBP/USD 15 minutes chart

2007-02-23T09:42:00.000-05:00

GBP/USD broke the 1.9639 which is the H4 Long breakout level suggesting that it may continue north as of today. If price today closes at its current levels or higher, this will give a bearish outlook for the next couple of days so far. 1.97-- is highly probable in the next week.

GBP/USD update

2007-02-23T09:34:00.000-05:00

GBP/USD broke the 1.9600 level yesterday, and is more likely to reach at least 1.9656 or around that level which is the 50% fibonacci retracement from 1.9914-1.9400 Hi-Lo levels.
For today if you are already on a long position then wait until today's close because more likely that price will go up until the close time.

GBP/USD update

2007-02-22T13:06:00.000-05:00

GBP/USD touched the 1.9600 level today. A breakout of this level tomorrow will most likely reach the 1.9657 which is the 50% fibonacci retracement from the 1.9912 - 1.9400 Hi-Lo.

GBP/USD 15 minute chart update

2007-02-22T12:58:00.000-05:00

GBP/USD is finding a strong support at 1.9568 and is currently resuming its upward movement. If the 1.9568 remains intact, then this will support my bullish forecast for tomorrow. GBP/USD is at 1.9582 at the time of writing this post.

GBP/USD 15 minute chart

2007-02-22T12:39:00.000-05:00

GBP/USD 15 minute chart starts to show mild retracement from the 1.9595 price. As of the time of writing the 1.9568 holds as a strong support, if it breaks, then the retracement will continu to follow untill the pivot level most likely at 1.9538.

The overall speculation is bullish for the GBP/USD, although the reason for the 100 pips spike today is still not known so far.

GBP/USD update

2007-02-22T12:30:00.000-05:00

GBP/USD had broken the triangle formed 14 days ago. If the price closed above the current level of 1.9588 (as of the time writing this post), then I think continue its upward movement of at least 1.9670.

Carry Strategy 4 Update

2007-02-02T00:00:00.000-05:00

Hello everyone, I am posting an update for my Carry Strategy #4. As usual, you can monitor the performance of the two carry strategies that I am posting on this blog by clicking on the Carry strategy numbers in the label section on the right hand panel of the blog.

I will not be posting any screenshots today, because there is nothing new. The JPY is tsill going down infront of the GBP, and that's thy key for this carry strategy success. Ia m waiting to see when the GBP will start diving in front of the JPY, that's where the real test of this strategy begins.

I am not doing any carry strategies on my live account. The strategies are tested only on demo account from the pretigious broker that have all my loyalty OANDA http://ww.oanda.com

Now with the update.

Account Balance: 5,729.31
Unrealized Profit/Loss: + 3,095.10
Net Asset Value: 8,824.41
That is a total of 729$ interest since November 1st.

The account was opened on November 1st with an initial deposit of 5,000$. No trades have been made to this account at all. For further information and screen shots, just refer to my earlier post on this strategy.

Useful Metatrader indicators-Pivot All Levels

2007-01-31T18:56:00.000-05:00

From Investopedia.com

Pivot points are yet another useful tool that can be added to any trader's toolbox. It enables anyone to quickly calculate levels that are likely to cause price movement. The success of a pivot-point system, however, lies squarely on the shoulders of the trader, on his or her ability to effectively use the pivot-point systems in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis. These other technical indicators can be anything from MACD crossovers to candlestick patterns - the greater the number of positive indications, the greater the chances for success.

You can download it here

Just a quick clarification.

2007-01-14T00:02:00.000-05:00

Hello again everyone. I would like to clarify that this blog is not specific for carry strategies. I am a pure technical guy. I am currently long on GBP/USD by the way. So, as a part of my blogging I will be providing an up to date analysis of a coupe of carry trade strategies.

Second Carry Strategy

2007-01-13T12:27:00.000-05:00

Hello everyone,

Welcome again. Today I am going to post screenshots of my second carry strategy in this blog, which I call it "carry strategy 1". You can always locate the posts corresponding to this strategy in the future by clicking on the Label "Carry strategy 1" Located at the ed of this post. This will show you all the posts related to this strategy.

The first screenshot show the account positions summary. It is similar to Carry Strategy 4, with only one modification is that I sometimes close the +positions and open another ones with the same unit size.

The second screen shot is showing the account Exposure summary.

The third screen shot is showing the account summary since it was opened in November 18th and not November the 1st as the "Carry 4 Strategy". You can easily know the difference between the interest profit and the actual position closure profits by subtracting the Relaised Profit/Loss from the balance. That way, you will get the actual interest that was credited to this account since November 18th.

How to easily see the performance of a specific carry strategy

2007-01-12T10:54:00.000-05:00

To easily see the performance of a specific carry strategy, or the posts related to it. I will use the label function in Google Blogger. I will label the Carry 4 strategy with the "Carry Strategy 4" and so on....

I am testing nearly 6 strategies, so they will be named correspondingly .

My first carry strategy.

2007-01-12T10:12:00.000-05:00

We will call this "Carry 4". I have taken the idea and the ratio of positions from one of the members of the OANDA forums. I have been implementing it since November the 1st. You will see in the account activity I am long GBP/JPY 46,040 Units, I am shorting USD/JPY 23,020 units, and I am shorting GBP/USD 20,000 Units.

So Far I didn't do anything with this strategy after I placed my initial positions, I am just letting the interest profits go. After the recent rate hike in GBP yesterday, I don't know how this will affect the strategy, but we will see in the coming few month. I think I can just cancel the GBP/USD trade now safely, because the interest is equal now.

As you will see in the account activity, I have more than 10% profits as of January 11th 2007.

I am welcoming any comments and suggestions to improve this strategy. I wonder how this strategy will work if the JPY start showing its muscles.

Carry Trade strategies.

2007-01-12T09:50:00.000-05:00

Hello everyone,

Since the beginning of November 2006, and I am testing a few carry trade strategies. Although I am not a big fan of carry trades, I noticed some of them are working until now with decent profits. Ia m gonna post the progress of these strategies from now on. Though, I am not recommending any of them because I noticed that most of them are just depending on a falling USD to succeed, but I am still in the process of testing them.

What a wonderful 4 months for carry traders.

2007-01-02T20:02:00.000-05:00

GBP/USD

2006-11-05T21:50:00.001-05:00

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.9014
Position:	Buy
Prof-Loss:	-1
Target:	1.9054
Exit:	-

Market Positions Update

2006-10-31T10:04:00.001-05:00

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
AUD/USD	Sell	0.7673	-26 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

2006-10-30T23:48:00.001-05:00

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-324 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Daily Commentary for USD

2006-10-30T23:46:00.001-05:00

FX Chicago
http://www.fxchi.com

Ready For A Big Move

Tue, 31 Oct 2006 03:37:46 GMT
by Richard Regan

The USD is setting up for a substantial move. After days of continued downtrend, we see a tight range consolidation. This is almost always the sign of high volatility to come. The obvious play is to get on board in whichever direction it breaksout/down from todays range. But don't get fooled by a quick move that appears to be the start of the trend. Be patient and make sure an abundance of buyers or sellers have entered the market, then just look to get good prices and ride the trend. News came out today on the personal spending accompanied by comments from Fed Governer Lacker indicating a strong US economy. As my traders pointed out to me today, after a big down move, if good news comes out, and the USD does not rally, shouldn't we look for a big short on any negative US news? The answer is yes, but there is no need to develop a bias right now. Just make sure you recognize it relatively early and stay in the direction of the move.

CONSOLIDATION RANGES:

EUR/USD: 1.2705-1.2740

USD/JPY: 117.20-117.70

The GBP/USD already made a nice upmove today, while other currencies remained flat against the USD. I would steer clear of this pair until we see some more developments. Nice resistance just before and around 1.9100.

Still plenty of economic releases and speeches this week. I still believe that the probability of big moves is high this week. My currency pair of choice to watch this week USD/JPY. Good luck.

Market Position Update

2006-10-30T15:04:00.001-05:00

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Market Positions Update

2006-10-30T15:02:00.000-05:00

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Forex Technical Analysis

2006-10-30T14:51:00.000-05:00

Forex Technical Analysis

KBC Bank
http://www.kbc.be/dealingroom

EUR/USD:(1.2720) Above channel top off 1.2939 and ST double bottom

Mon, 30 Oct 2006 14:20:30 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk

Above channel top off 1.2629 and ST Double Bottom off 1.2642 (see graph: potential at 1.2762/ 1.2800).

1st Support area at 1.2714/ .02 (daily envelope/ ST break-up daily), with next levels at 1.2691 (ST break-up hourly), ahead of 1.2661/ .42 (Friday's low/ see graph + break-up weekly) and 1.2621/ .18(ST break-up hourly/ weekly envelope): ideal area to stay above to keep current better mood on € intact.

Inability to hold would see next level at 1.2597 (daily MT MA↑): difficult on 1st tests. Resistance area at 1.2732/ 1.2750 (today's high? + reinstalled daily Downtrendline off high/ last week high), with next levels at 1.2762/ .67 (see above/ Oct 03 high + daily Bollinger top). 1.2783/ .2800 = daily Starc top/ 2nd target off 1.2642/ Oct 03 high, where a pause is expected.



SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
1.2714/ .02 (daily envelope/ see above)	1.2732/ .50 (today's high?/ last week high)
1.2691 (see above)	1.2762/ .67 (see above / Oct 03 high + daily projection
1.2661/ .42 (see above + daily ST MA↑/ see	1.2783/ .2800 (daily Strarc top/ see above + weekly

For in-depth insight on other currency pairs:

USD/YEN: (117.43) Below channel off 113.96 and the double top off 118.03
EUR/GBP: (.6703) Channel bottom off .6822 held
EUR/JPY : (149.33) Back in triangle pattern

Current Market Positions Update

2006-10-30T14:48:00.000-05:00

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

2006-10-30T14:44:00.000-05:00

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

2006-10-29T23:47:00.001-05:00

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-300 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

2006-10-29T23:29:00.001-05:00

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-300 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-
Status	Open

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+109 pips
Target:
Exit:	222.50
Status	Closed

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+79 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	149.30
Status	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

2006-10-29T23:28:00.001-05:00

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-100 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-
Status	Open

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+109 pips
Target:
Exit:	222.50
Status	Closed

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+79 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	149.30
Status	Closed

Market Positions Update

2006-10-27T18:37:00.001-05:00

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-305 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+25 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+16 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Technical Summary for Majors by Slobodan Drvenica

2006-10-27T18:23:00.001-05:00

Technical Summary for Majors

Fri, 27 Oct 2006 14:09:56 GMT
by Slobodan Drvenica

EURUSD

The latest push higher broke through 1.2712, today's high / trendline resistance, to extend gains to 1.2745. Further upside is seen towards 1.2755/65, though overbought hourlies warn of corrective pullback. 1.2660 underpins fresh rallies.

Res: 1.2779, 1.2806, 1.2840, 1.2850

Sup: 1.2745, 1.2733, 1.2710, 1.2695

GBPUSD

Surged through 1.8923, today's high, to dent 1.9000 barrier, with 1.9001 being reached so far, just under 1.9017, 11 week trendline resistance. Break there is required to open further gains towards 1.9025/40, possibly 1.9075 on a break. Extremely overbought hourly studies warn of correction before fresh rally. 1.8925/00 offers initial support.

Res: 1.9017, 1.9025, 1.9040, 1.9075

Sup: 1.8954, 1.8925, 1.8903, 1.8880

USDJPY

Rallied strongly this morning, following correction from 116.82, 22 Aug previous high, to 116.07, 23 Aug low. Breach of 116.82 resistance has triggered fresh gains above 117.00 to reach 117.24 high so far. Further gains are seen towards 117.37/85 25/19 July highs. Overbought hourlies warn of correction, though 116.35/15 expected to contain dips and maintain bulls.

Res: 117.37, 117.55, 117.85, 118.00

Sup: 116.82, 116.65, 116.35, 116.15

USDCHF

Continues to trend higher from 1.2181, 21 Aug low, with yesterday's renewed strength from 1.2306 higher low, extending gains to 1.2404 high so far. Corrective pullback is underway, with 1.2350/20 area offering underpinning fresh advance. Break above 1.2404 opens 1.2443, 15 Aug high, next.

Res: 1.2404, 1.2425, 1.2443, 1.2465

Sup: 1.2350, 1.2338, 1.2320, 1.2290

Market Update

2006-10-27T18:21:00.001-05:00

GBP/JPY bears resurfaced today after an extremely overbought market. The pair should resume the downward trend on Monday.

Positions update

2006-10-26T09:01:00.000-05:00

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-186 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-46 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-26 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Positions Update

2006-10-25T23:01:00.001-05:00

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-140 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+6 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-2 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

E-Forex.RO Analysis

2006-10-25T22:58:00.001-05:00

Thursday 26-10-2006

EUR/USD

The Euro rallied on yesterday as a result of the FOMC meeting, resuming the rise during today Asian session. The break of the 1.2600 resistance confirmed the bullish momentum on the daily charts. Resistance is now formed by 1.2640 which is being tested at the time of this writing and 1.2660 higher. Resistance also emerges at 1.2700. The downward trendline resistance formed on the daily charts is now seen around 1.2650. Support is formed by 1.2600 on first place, backed by 1.2575 and 1.2525. We are expecting the Euro to face a solid barrier at 1.2660. Current quote is 1.2636 @ 03:20 GMT

Recommended trades:

Short in the 1.2660 area, stop above 1.2690, objectives at and below 1.2600.

Current Positions

2006-10-25T17:13:00.000-05:00

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-100 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-8 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-2 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

GBP/USD Position Update

2006-10-25T10:33:00.000-05:00

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-100 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Top Economic Events Release Associated Volatility

2006-10-25T10:30:00.000-05:00

Top Economic Events Release Associated Volatility

FXAnalytics
http://fxanalytics.fxstreet.com/

October 31st 2006: This is a very high event risk day

Wed, 25 Oct 2006 11:09:05 GMT
by John Putman

Employment Cost Index

Event Risk – Low

Forecasted Release Volatility – within Daily Average True Range.

Chicago PMI

Event Risk – Medium/High

Forecasted Release Volatility – within Daily Average True Range.

This release will often exceed DATR but has lately had a muted impact on the actual direction of the dollar.

Consumer Confidence

Event Risk – Low

Forecasted Release Volatility – within Daily Average True Range.

Daily Forex Technical Report

2006-10-25T10:28:00.000-05:00

Daily Forex Technical Report

ActionForex.com
http://www.actionforex.com

Wed, 25 Oct 2006 14:44:33 GMT
by ActionForex.com Team

Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Dollar Softer, FOMC Awaited

Dollar continues to trade with an undertone today as traders awaits FOMC rate announcement. Euro was boosted slightly earlier today after stronger than expected German Ifo business sentiment which rose to 105.3 to Oct. Disappointing Existing home sales, which dropped more than expected by 1.9% to 6.18m annualized rate is adding some weights to the greenback too. Both impact on the market is limited as traders are still cautious ahead of the FOMC statement.

As mentioned before, expectation has been built up for hawkish fed statement despite keeping range unchanged at 5.25%. However, the major question remains on market's reaction and it's doubtful on how hawkish the Fed is needed to sound to keep dollar buyers jumping in. An hawkish statement that stress the persistently high core inflation will likely spike higher the greenback. But, if no sustained buying, we could see an equally sharp reversal as selling-on-news comes into dominance. Beware of the volatility.

RBNZ is expected to keep overnight cash rate unchanged at 7.25% in the coming Asian session.

Read full report (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY) here.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.07; (P) 119.35; (R1) 119.62; More

USD/JPY's retreat from 119.64 reaches 118.98 but is still supported by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 118.98). As discussed before, short term risk remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 118.54 support. Firm break above 119.86 will indicate recent rally has resumed for 121.38 high.

However, below 118.54 support will indicate rebound from 118.04 has completed and bring retest of 118.04 low. Break will indicate corrective fall from 119.86 has resumed and should bring testing of 117.37 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 108.99 to 119.86 at 117.29, 55 days EMA at 117.51, short term rising channel at 117.49).

In the bigger picture, with multi-year trend line resistance (147.68 to 135.20 then to 121.38) broken, the strong medium term rise from 108.99 could either be resumption of the year long up trend from 101.65 to 121.38, in other words, the correction from 121.38 has totally finished at 108.99 already. Or it could just be part of the consolidation that started at 121.38. But in either case, a retest of 121.38 high should be seen.

However, firm break below 117.37 cluster support will be the first signal that whole medium term rally from 108.99 has completed and deeper decline should be seen towards outer channel line (now at 115.43) first.

Today’s Focus: EURUSD & GBPUSD

2006-10-25T10:27:00.000-05:00

Today’s Focus: EURUSD & GBPUSD

Wed, 25 Oct 2006 12:43:41 GMT
by Mohammed Isah

EUR Continues To Hold Below 1.2613/341 Zone

EURUSD-EUR continues to hold below 1.2613/41 levels since it rejected higher-level prices and sold off on Monday. This suggests that it is still maintaining its short-term negative outlook and an attack on its Jun/July’06 lows at the 1.2477/59 zone cannot be ruled out. If a penetration and negation of these levels are seen, EUR could be targeting 1.2333/25 levels, its Jan/April’06 high and its Mar’06 high at 1.2210 ahead of its range breakout price target at 1.2000 area established by measuring the width of the range and projecting it from the breakout point. Both the RSI indicator, which is pushing to the down and the patterns of lower highs and lower lows now seen on the daily chart support the above scenario.Conversely,a sustained violation of the 1.2613/41(Sept’06 lows/Oct 19’06 high) levels is required to invalidate the above view. In such a situation,EUR would push towards its oct’06 high at 1.2765 and Sept 22’06 high at 1.2830.On the whole, as long as EUR holds below 1.2613/41 levels, a challenge and a possible break below its broader range bottom is possible.

Support Comments
1.2459/77 Jun/July’06 lows
1.2333/25 April 19'06 low
1.2210 Mar’06 high
1.2000 Broader range breakout price target

Resistance Comments
1.2560/80 Oct 10’06 high/200 ema/Sept 26’06 low
1.2639/29 Sept’06 lows/.618 Ret (July-Aug rally)
1.2714 100 ema
1.2830/79 Aug 31’06 high/Sept’06 highs

GBP Looks Vulnerable To The Downside

GBPUSD- GBP remains vulnerable to further downside price losses following its recent failure at the 1.8858/88 zone (Oct 20&04’06 highs). Such a failure implies that its last week gains were both corrective and also a reaction to an oversold condition following its recent decline to 2.5 months low at 1.8511.On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.8632/02,its Sept’06 lows followed by 1.8522/11,its Oct’06 lows. A close below these levels targets 1.8384, its July 25’06 low ahead of its July/Jun’06 lows at 1.8175/1.8088.Daily RSI indicator remains in support of GBP’s downside price losses as it is negative and pointing to the downside. On the other hand, a close above 1.8897/1.8946 (Oct’06 high/broken rising trendline) would be needed to reverse the above situation. If seen, this will put the pair in position to challenge its year-to-date high at 1.9143.On the whole, maintaining below its recent high at 1.8858 puts pressure on GBP for further downside price losses in the days and weeks ahead.

Support Comments
1.8602/32 Sept 29’06 lows
1.8492/1.8511 .618 Ret/Oct 10’06 low
1.8389 July 26’06 low
1.8175 July’06 low

Resistance Comments
1.8739/39 Oct 17&18'06
1.8918/1.8884 Sept 14’06 highs
1.9000 Psychological Resistance
1.9088/1.9143 Aug’06 high

Market update from SaxoBank

2006-10-25T09:20:00.000-05:00

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-83 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

SaxoBank Analysis

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION

EUR

Stronger than expected IFO figures, but lower than expected Import Prices this morning. German CPI figures have been coming out at a rather high level today. All in, the EUR might be supported short-term by data, but the market thinks the FOMC Statement will be more important tonight.

USD

Richmond Fed disappointed yesterday, but Core Inflation in the US has been uncomfortably high lately. Thus, we expect "no change" tonight, but also a Statement that is moderately hawkish and expressing concerns over the trend in core inflation figures.

JPY

Is there too much complacency in the use of JPY as a funding currency in Carry Trades? Watch out for the short end of the JPY yield curve. Last time it spiked higher, we saw a lot of turmoil in Emerging Markets and some jittery JPY trading (not really strength). We could soon see more rate speculation in Japan. The release of the Trade Balance this morning should not have any noticeable impact on JPY, but the FOMC Rate Announcement might result in some movements.

CHF

Still the European equivalent of JPY. The quite good figures lately have not been able to help CHF out of its bearish trend.

GBP

A strong come-back this morning - especially vs. AUD. Might go higher on that note. Note that GBPAUD broke the important 2.4650 level, which we still maintain in the FX Order Book (see below). The cross is in our opinion still a sell, but contigent of a break of 0.76 in AUDUSD.

CAD

There is a lot of noise in the market over a seemingly record high short position of CAD. We might be in for a short-squeeze, which would fit quite handsomely with the soft landing theme and further AUD strength.

AUD

Was the bullish trend in the AUD-crosses running into a brick-wall this morning? Perhaps 0.76 in AUDUSD is still capping the upside in other crosses. We are close to breaking that level and that might result in a blow-off in overnight trading.

NZD

Finally, looking like a real turnaround. The CPI figures were lower than expected o/n and we are now waiting for the RBNZ Rate Decision tonight. We expect no change like a big minority of analysts. Why? Because inflation has clearly come down from its rather elevated level in 2Q and because NZ policy makers are usually not keen to help the NZD going higher. Officials are more likely to come out and bad-mouth their own currency like they use to.

GBP/USD Position Update

2006-10-25T09:17:00.000-05:00

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-83 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

GBP/USD position update

2006-10-24T22:03:00.000-05:00

Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-64 pips
Target:	-
Exit	-

GBP/USD update

2006-10-24T14:51:00.000-05:00

Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-60 pips
Target:	-

GBP/USD Update

2006-10-24T11:24:00.000-05:00

Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-73 pips
Target:	-

The position is now at -73 pips loss, but this may all be a corrective move. The market is waiting for tomorrow's FOMC meeting. I am still hanging in there to the see the daily closure price as of today.

GBP/USD update

2006-10-24T11:06:00.000-05:00

Sell Order GBP/USD @ 1.8675 triggered.

Position update: -71 pips

Sell Order GBP/USD Triggered

2006-10-24T10:51:00.000-05:00

Sell Order GBP/USD @ 1.8675 triggered.

Current position: -34 pips

GBP/USD Limit Order

2006-10-23T23:10:00.000-05:00

Sell Order GBP/USD @ 1.8675 Take Profit: Open

EUR/USD update

2006-10-23T08:21:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD did not break OR even reach the 1.2643 level, but instead it fell down to the 1.2540 level. Stay tuned for what is going to happen at the end of today.
Recomended trades: No position

EUR/USD consolidating

2006-10-22T22:22:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD is consolidating now at 1.2615-1.2620. If the price breaks 1.2642 major resistance, then I assume that it will go to 1.2690 level easily. Although if it reached this evel, then reversal sig will more likely be triggered. Stay tuned for Monday tomorrow for the price movement.

Buy Limit Eur/USD @ 1.2643 TP 1.2663

2006-10-22T21:59:00.000-05:00

Buy Limit Eur/USD @ 1.2643 TP 1.2663

GBP/USD analysis for next week 23-27 October 2006

2006-10-21T17:58:00.000-05:00

GBP/USD formed a strong bottom on 1.8520. The reversal pattern was augmented by oversold oscillator indicator.

Now GBP/USD faces a strong resistance at 1.8883 which represents the 50.0 Fibonnaci retracement from last month.

Suggestions:
Stay away from market until a reversal or continuatin of the bull trend occurs.

Expectations:
A strong reversal will occur around 1.8880 level.

Hello Everyone and Welcome Back

2006-10-21T16:25:00.000-05:00

I will be trying to post again my analysis and my signals for the forex market on GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs. Stay tuned for moe updates.

Analyse this "My performance over a year"

2006-04-22T16:50:00.000-05:00

Hi All , This is my performance over a year in the same account in Metatrader.

Yesterday's EUR/USD analysis comment

2006-02-13T19:12:00.000-05:00

Yesterday's target was met on 1.1876, now the pair is suspected to retrace for a while before deciding which way to go.

GBP0USD retraces for a while

2006-02-13T19:10:00.000-05:00

The cable reached down to 1.7360 around the 23.6 fib retracement of the previous month, now it is forming a weak hummer, so prices are suspected to reach 1.7460 tomorrow or around that at least. Suggested trading: buy now for 20-30 pips or according to your exist strategy.

EUR/USD retraces back

2006-02-13T19:07:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD met a strong support below 1.1900, Tomorrow it is predicted to retrace for at least 30 pips reachig around 1.1930-1.1940.

GBP/USD target met

2006-02-13T07:22:00.000-05:00

Target met in the cable short, which reached 1.17370 over the night.

EUR/USD results

2006-02-13T07:19:00.000-05:00

Target met in EUR/USD, which reached 1.1880 level over night.

GBP/USD analysis for 13-Feb-2006

2006-02-12T20:44:00.000-05:00

Sell GBP/USD on a break of 1.7400 support for 20-30 pips profit, or according to your exit strategy.

EUR/USD retraced quickly beyong the 1.1900 range

2006-02-12T13:03:00.000-05:00

Buy on break of 1.1900 support for at least 20 or 30 pips.

EUR/USD daily update

2005-10-09T22:19:00.000-05:00

The EUR/USD met a strong resistance in the daily chart, and couldnot break the 1.2201 level, instead it went down to test the 1.2100 level again, now focus on the 1.2201 support if broken then a chance that the EUR/USD will go downward is more likely.

Sorry for stopping my analysis

2005-09-01T08:15:00.000-05:00

Hi everyone, I am so sorry that I have stopped my analysis for the forex candlestick charts, I don't know exactly when I am gonna resume it because I am so busy now, but I promise it will be in the near future.

May Jesus bless you.

Sorry for not posting my candlestick analysis

2005-08-24T06:10:00.000-05:00

Hi, I am so sorry for the delay n posting my candlestick analysis, but
I am very busy this week, and if God's will I will restart posting my
analysis after a week.
May Jesus Christ bless you all.

SaxoBank Analysis 24 th August 200505:10 GMT

2005-08-24T03:02:00.000-05:00

Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD (1.2178 @ 05:17 GMT)

EUR/USD attempted to rally again late yesterday, possibly on weakness in US equity markets. But overnight, the stronger USD and saw 1.2195 area support fall, and now we focus on 1.2130 as the last support holding the pair back from a retest of the 1.2000 area. 1.2195 is now resistance. Further out, we may look for EUR to find strong support.

Resist.
1.2356
1.2291
1.2263
1.2178
1.2199
1.2162
1.2098
Support

British Pound/US Dollar

GBPUSD (1.7923 @ 05:19 GMT)

GBP/USD looks like it is finally committing lower, with a fall through 1.7900 further confirming that we should focus on 1.7800 now and possibly even 1.7500 eventually. 1.7970 is first resistance, followed by the 1.8020 area.

Resist.
1.8120
1.8060
1.8039
1.7923
1.7979
1.7940
1.7880
Support

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USDJPY (110.61 @ 05:34 GMT)

USD/JPY rallied strongly overnight, possibly for technical reasons as the 110.15 minor resistance was taken out. Still, 110.80 is an awfully big barrier. If the pair can pull through that level, then we're looking at the range between 111.50 and 113 again. To the downside, 110.00 looks like a swing level.

Resist.
111.06
110.47
110.17
110.61
109.58
109.29
108.70
Support

Saxo Analysis 23 August 2005

2005-08-23T07:59:00.000-05:00

Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD (1.2213 @ 12:46 GMT)

EUR/USD found resistance below the 1.2260 ideal resistance area, though a positive boost from Germany and EuroZone sentiment surveys still presents a risk that the pair could revisit the 1.2300 area before heading lower again. Support appears robust around the 1.2200 area for now.

Resist.
1.2386
1.2297
1.2263
1.2213
1.2174
1.2120
1.2032
Support

British Pound/US Dollar

GBPUSD (1.7965 @ 12:46 GMT)

GBP/USD can't make up its mind which way it wants to go, but the preference is for it to eventually head lower, especially if it stays below yesterday's high and the resistance at 1.8047. A move through 1.7900 encourages the view toward 1.7800 and possibly even 1.7500 eventually.

Resist.
1.8228
1.8111
1.8055
1.7965
1.7937
1.7875
1.7757
Support

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USDJPY (110.14 @ 12:46 GMT)

USD/JPY still looks heavy, and a fall through 109.50 again could encourage a test of the crucial 108.90 area, which guards the gates to much lower levels still. The upside swing level comes in around 110.00 - this was briefly breached this morning, but must hold if it is to help swing the pair higher. 110.80 is the key resistance higher still.

Resist.
112.21
111.06
110.42
110.14
109.28
108.77
107.63
Support

Tuesday, 23rd August 2005 SaxoBank Analysis

2005-08-23T01:53:00.000-05:00

Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD (1.2204 @ 05:53 GMT)

Resist.
1.2386
1.2297
1.2263
1.2204
1.2174
1.2120
1.2032
Support

British Pound/US Dollar

GBPUSD (1.7978 @ 05:55 GMT)

Resist.
1.8228
1.8111
1.8055
1.7978
1.7937
1.7875
1.7757
Support

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USDJPY (109.96 @ 05:58 GMT)

Resist.
112.21
111.06
110.42
109.96
109.28
108.77
107.63
Support

Rich disciples

2005-08-22T06:11:00.000-05:00

The Burial of Jesus
57. As evening approached, there came a rich man from Arimathea, named Joseph, who had himself become a disciple of Jesus.

Matthew 27:57

Oanda Spreads

2005-08-22T03:10:00.000-05:00

Oanda Spreads: This morning I woke up to see Oanda spreads on the EUR/USD 0.9.
WOW Good Job Oanda

GBP/USD weekly chart analysis

2005-08-21T18:45:00.000-05:00

GBP/USD showing a similar story to the EUR/USD weekly chart, apparent Tweezer top is seen which indicate further bearish movement for this week as well.

EUR/USD weekly chart analysis

2005-08-21T18:43:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD weekly chart showing tweezer top, indicating a possible bearish continuation pattern, but beware of possible bullish Monday as a normal start of the candle.

Daily Bible Verse

2005-08-18T18:26:00.000-05:00

The tongue that brings healing is a tree of life, but a deceitful tongue crushes the spirit.
Proverbs 15:4 (NIV)

The Good news Part 3

2005-08-18T18:24:00.000-05:00

Christ's Answer

Because our sin has separated us from God, we have been left with a "God-shaped vacuum" or spiritual emptiness. The world's many religions are all evidence of mankind's endless struggle to fill this vacuum. And our relentless search for inner peace through pleasure seeking, power, fame, fortune, drugs, and mystical experiences all tell of our inner emptiness.

As it is impossible for us to find God or peace with Him through our own efforts, God in His love and mercy sent His own sinless Son, Jesus Christ, to save us from our predicament ( Ephesians 2:8-9).

Christ did this by dying on the cross in our place to pay the ransom price for our sins--which was death (I Timothy 2:5-6). Thus Jesus Christ is God's only provision for our sin and He is the only way back to God and eternal life ( John 14:6 and Romans 5:8).

Site stats

2005-08-18T17:32:00.000-05:00

The site exceeded more than 5000 visitors, i hope all of you had some help from this blog. May God bless you all

Inverted hammer formation in the EUR/JPY daily candle

2005-08-18T17:22:00.000-05:00

Inverted Hammer formation in the daily chart of the EUR/JPY pair indicating a probability of short term bearish reversal. Prices are epected to go bullish tomorrow if broken the 135.45 range.

Eur/Usd analysis for 18th August 2005

2005-08-18T17:21:00.000-05:00

Short term bearish movement in the Eur/Usd is expected to continue if the prices broke the yesterday's low of 1.2156, set your TP tight because it is the end of the week and prices may retrace a bit before closing the weekly candle.

GBP/USD analysis for 18th August 2005

2005-08-18T17:20:00.000-05:00

GBP/USD finally broke the 1.8000 psychological support and important one too, all the forecasts from other brokers expect the breakdown to continue to 1.7800, anyways long bearish bar is expected to follow tomorrow as well but beware of the end of the week where prices may retrace a bit.

Short term bearish movement confirmed in the cable

2005-08-18T08:05:00.000-05:00

The Cable broke the 1.8017 support and reching the 1.7961 level, confirming the short term bearish movement of the GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Analysis for tomorrow

2005-08-17T17:15:00.000-05:00

Short term trend in the cable is bearish. Further bearish movement is expected as of tomorrow if the 1.8017 is broken.

Weekly chart of the EUR/USD

2005-08-17T16:27:00.000-05:00

Weekly chart of the EUR/USD showing short term bearish movement, but again pay strong attention to the 1.2250 level.

Eur/Usd analysis for tomorrow

2005-08-17T16:26:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD went the other way which I didn't expect, now further movement is expected in the bearish side. Set you sell orders at breaking the 1.2260 level, but beware of the strong support at 1.2250. so you may see reversal at 1.2250.

The Good News .....Part 2

2005-08-17T14:59:00.000-05:00

Man's Problem

Unfortunately, it is our wrongdoing or sin that blocks out our experiencing God's love and receiving the full and abundant life that He has for us. And let's face it, "We have all sinned and fallen short of God's standard" (Romans 3:23). Sin, of course, is not merely doing wrongful acts. It is anything that falls short of the perfection that God envisioned for us--including our damaged emotions, negative attitudes, and mixed motives.

Punishment for sin comes from the wrongdoing itself. Sin has its own self destructive consequences--first spiritual death and ultimately eternal death (Romans 6:23); that is eternal separation from God, the Author of all love and life.

EUR/USD moved exactly the opposite of what i suggested

2005-08-17T03:55:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD moved exactly the opposite of what i suggested and It was definitely not a hammer, but my orders to buy at 1.2371 was not executed, and the same story happened with the USD/CHF.

Daily bible verse

2005-08-17T03:20:00.000-05:00

Fear not, for I am with you; be not dismayed, for I am your God. I will
strengthen you, yes, I will help you, I will uphold you with My righteous
right hand. - Isaiah 41:10.

About the Bible verses in this blog

2005-08-17T03:07:00.000-05:00

If you have a knife, you can either use it to cut an apply into pieces and so you would have your lunch or you would use it to cut a human being into pieces and you would be called a murderer.
I think the story is pretty much the same for the forex, you may be called a gambler if you just entered with all the money you have and with no analysis trying to pick 200 pips in one day. but with decent money management and with good risk reward ratio then you are not different from anyone opening a supermarket and trying to sell and buy some tomatoes to earn his living.

SO I DON'T THINK THAT POSTING SOME BIBLE VERSES HERE WOULD BE A MISTAKE SIMPLY BECAUSE I DON'T THINK TRADING IN THE FOREX IS A MISTAKE.

For all the people who insulted me in emails and who insulted me in the comments here, I would tell them that I will complete posting in this blog bible verses, and if anyone thinks it is blasphemous then please don't visit the blog.

Thanks as well for all those who comments about my forex analysis.

May Jesus bless you all.

Orders were not executed and my analysis yesterday was wrong.

2005-08-17T02:51:00.000-05:00

Hi all, I completely analysed yesterday's EUR/USD and USD/CHF in a wrong way, it was too early to say that this was a reversal in pattern because simply there wasn't enough days of the original pattern, but orders were not exceuted since I mentioned that buying orders in the EUR/USD only when breaking yesterday's High at 1.2371 which didn't happen "Thanks God for that"

shooting star in the USD/CHF daily chart

2005-08-16T15:57:00.000-05:00

Typical shooting star in the USD/CHF daily chart indicating a bearish day may follow.

Hammer formation in the EUR/USD daily chart.

2005-08-16T15:53:00.000-05:00

A long bearish candle transformed to a long hammer, indicating the probability that tomorrow will be a Euro bulls day. Buy order triggered on prices breaking 1.2371 for +10 pips to +50 pips or according to your exit strategy. Please note that I always close my oredrs after a minimal amount of pips regardless which pattern I see in the candlestick charts.
I am using metatrader 4 platform because I get a lot of questions in this issue, I am on +2 GMT time frame which is the default time frame in the Metatrader 4 application.Metatrade 4 can be downloaded for free from http://www.metaquotes.net/.

The Good News Part 1

2005-08-16T11:30:00.000-05:00

I walked into the religious instruction classroom in a secular school and, with tongue-in-cheek, wrote in large letters across the blackboard "I hate religion."
"Man, in this class, you'll get shot," gasped one student in amazement.
"But I'm sold on real Christianity," I responded.
"What's the difference?" half the class chorused.

God's Purpose

The point is one can be religious without necessarily being Christian. Let me explain. True, Christianity is a religion, but it's much more than that. It's also much more than believing a creed. It's a relationship with God and people. It's knowing God personally, experiencing His divine love and forgiveness, and communicating this to every life we touch.

We start by realizing that no matter what we have ever done or have failed to do, God loves us and is vitally interested in our total life--both for this life as well as the next. In fact, Jesus said, "For God so loved the world that He gave His one and only Son, that whoever believes in Him shall not perish but have eternal life" (John 3:16). And again, "I came that they may have life, and have it to the full" (John 10:10).

To be continued.

Comments are always welcomed

2005-08-16T11:22:00.000-05:00

Hi all, I would really love to see your comments and analysis and ideas on my posts so please just click on the comment link and share your analysis. I always try to reply every comment.

Good luck to you all and May Jesus bless.

Shaven head in the GBP/USD daily chart confirmed

2005-08-16T08:35:00.000-05:00

Bear candle as suggested in the previous post confirming the bearish short term pattern in the cable.

Tweezer top formation in the EUR/USD weekly chart

2005-08-16T04:23:00.000-05:00

Tweezer top formation in the EUR/USD weekly chart, This will trigger a sell signal on breaking 1.2314 level.

Daily Bible Verse

2005-08-16T03:13:00.000-05:00

"You are the salt of the earth. But if the salt loses its saltiness, how can it be made salty again? It is no longer good for anything, except to be thrown out and trampled by men."
Matthew 5:13 (NIV)