Hanging man formation in the EUR/USD daily chart, a bearish day is expected to follow on Monday 15th August when the market opens.
Saturday, August 13, 2005
Hanging man formation in the EUR/USD daily chart
Hanging man formation in the EUR/USD daily chart, a bearish day is expected to follow on Monday 15th August when the market opens.
Hammer and Hanging Man in Candlesticks formations patterns
The first pair, hammer and hanging man, are identical with small bodies and long lower shadows. The second pair, shooting star and inverted hammer, are also identical with small bodies and long upper shadows. Only preceding price action and further confirmation determine the bullish or bearish nature of these candlesticks. The hammer and inverted hammer form after a decline and are bullish reversal patterns, while the shooting star and hanging man form after an advance and are bearish reversal patterns.
The hammer and hanging man look exactly alike, but have different implications based on the preceding price action. Both have small real bodies (black or white), long lower shadows and short or non-existent upper shadows. As with most single and double candlestick formations, the hammer and hanging man require confirmation before action.
The hammer is a bullish reversal pattern that forms after a decline. In addition to a potential trend reversal, hammers can mark bottoms or support levels. After a decline, hammers signal a bullish revival. The low of the long lower shadow implies that sellers drove prices lower during the session. However, the strong finish indicates that buyers regained their footing to end the session on a strong note. While this may seem enough to act on, hammers require further bullish confirmation. The low of the hammer shows that plenty of sellers remain. Further buying pressure, and preferably on expanding volume, is needed before acting. Such confirmation could come from a gap up or long white candlestick. Hammers are similar to selling climaxes and heavy volume can serve to reinforce the validity of the reversal.
The hanging man is a bearish reversal pattern that can also mark a top or resistance level. Forming after an advance, a hanging man signals that selling pressure is starting to increase. The low of the long lower shadow confirms that sellers pushed prices lower during the session. Even though the bulls regained their footing and drove prices higher by the finish, the appearance of selling pressure raises the yellow flag. As with the hammer, a hanging man requires bearish confirmation before action. Such confirmation can come as a gap down or long black candlestick on heavy volume.
Tuesday, August 09, 2005
Thursday, August 04, 2005
Wednesday, August 03, 2005
The EUR/USD descended down to 1.2150 in the Asian session as was predicted in the previous post, collecting about from 20-50 ips depending about exit strategies. Now the pair mey a strong support at 1.2150 reversing the direction to reach 1.2206 at the time I am writing this comment. Oanda FxTrade platform is at 12.00EST, so everyday starts at 12.00 EST, (-7 GMT)
Tuesday, August 02, 2005
The EUR/USD failed to break the 1.2250 again!
The Eur/$ pair failed to break the 1.2250 again, will it break it in the next few days?
Monday, August 01, 2005
EUR/USD didn't break the 1.2250 resistance level today.
EUR failed to break the 1.2250 today, if the price moved lower today in the bears side, then a shooting star will be formed paving the way for a further down movement of the EURO.
Open Trades at Oanda as of 11.30 EST
Open Trades in Oanda as of 11.30 Est, prices may face some more retracement during the remaining hours of this day.
EUR/USD did make a retrace for 60 pips.
Saturday, July 30, 2005
Friday, July 29, 2005
Thursday, July 28, 2005
Set your stop loss to 1.7474
Now any one can just close the trade when he think he got the pips that satisfy him, because the trade may turn against us and the net profit will be zero.
Have a nice time.
Wednesday, July 27, 2005
Bullish Engulfing Pattern
As implied in its name, this trend suggests that the bulls have taken control of a security’s price movement from the bears. This type of pattern usually accompanies a declining trend in a security, suggesting that a low or end to a security's decline has occurred. However, as usual in candlestick analysis, the trader must take the preceding and following days' prices into account before making any decisions regarding the security.
GBP/USD order placed yesterday
Tuesday, July 26, 2005
Monday, July 25, 2005
Saturday, July 23, 2005
Thursday, July 21, 2005
Wednesday, July 20, 2005
Tuesday, July 19, 2005
EUR/USD went down as predicted in the last post
Monday, July 18, 2005
Tuesday, July 12, 2005
Thursday, July 07, 2005
Screenshots starting again of my game account.
I will again say that I am still a newbie and trying to learn as much as everyone in the fx market.
SL reaches -32 pips
I am still short on the usd, I just set up a stop loss for all those who must use stop loss, but i am short on the EUR/USD still.
Wednesday, July 06, 2005
Tuesday, July 05, 2005
Monday, July 04, 2005
Buy EUR/USD @ 1.1898 Target +12 pips
I am expecting some retracement here for at least +12 pips, so i am placing this order but better to have a tight stop at 1.1860, If the Eur/USD break this range then more downward movement is expected.
Sunday, July 03, 2005
Friday, July 01, 2005
EUR/USD still lingering above support ---Saxo Bank Analysis---
Published: Jul. 01 2005, 13:09 GMT
EUR/USD still lingering above support, while AUD, NZD and JPY continue to suffer under the USD's weight.
EUR may yet join the weaklings vs. the USD later today or early next week. ISM up at 14:00 GMT.
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
- Germany and EuroZone Manufacturing PMI's were marginally better than expected in June
- The South African Investec PMI jumped to 59.8 in June vs. 53.6 in May.
- Germany's Chancellor Schroeder lost a confidence vote in the Germany parliament, which will usher in the holding of new elections in September
Market Action: GBP, NZD, AUD and JPY were weak with the EUR and USD strong in the European Session today.
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
No new developments today to challenge the view from this morning, though the fall in US EuroDollar 3-month and Treasury futures today in Europe could be indicative of a USD that will strengthen further (even if we have argued that there is littl correlation with rates and currencies lately). It's interesting to see EUR holding up so well as its oversold levels in the crosses would seem largely unwound by now for the short term. The EUR/GBP rally is simply mind-boggling and may need a little consolidation, which is likely if 1.2000 finally gives way in EUR/USD as we expect.
Still, an ISM under 50 could be enough of a shocker to delay or cancel a EURUSD sell-off, though there's no reason to expect the ISM won't be in line with the 51+ expectations. Sio the break lower may yet come today.
The technical comments are partially updated depending on the activity today.
__________________________
(commentary from this morning...)
We got it wrong with the Fed statement. The Fed's complete lack of admission that there are signs of weakness in the economy took us by surprise and is very bullish for the USD here short term as the market is now scratching its head on when the Fed will stop hiking rates. Interestingly, the long treasury market continues to thumb is nose at the Chairman and actually rallied yesterday - and EuroDollar short interest rate futures were unbelievably stable considering what this would supposedly mean for rates further out. Esssentially the market is saying, "Even though you sit there with your finger on the button, Mr. Greenspan, we know you will stop pressing it soon."
The currency market was another matter, as USD bulls found fresh reason in yesterrday's developments (for the short term at least) to put on new positions.
Looking at the anatomy of the statement - the infamous "accommodative" (for current rate level) and "measured" (for pace of hikes going forward) words were retained, while the kicker was this: the Fed interestingly dropped its observation from May 3 that growth had "slowed somewhat" and now states that "Although energy prices have risen further, the expansion remains firm.
The market was clearly caught on the wrong foot here, and with the long weekend approaching, we could see a very large move down in EUR/USD and up in USD/CHF today, barring any desperately bad ISM data at 1400 GMT. This may be the final blow-off rally in the USD before some consolidation further out.
The data from Japan overnight is JPY supportive and USD/JPY's may begin to slow a bit while EUR/JPY looks vulnerable to a reversal lower.
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix's of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2081 @ 12:51 GMT)
| EUR/USD held in the range today between 1.2020 and 1.2110 as EUR continued to consolidate stronger in the crosses. LAter today, the pair may not escape the USD's wrath and we could see a quick removal of 1.2020 and a blast lower to 1.1870 early next week if the 1.2110 area holds. 1.2160 is the reversal level if things develop against our expectations. |
|
British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.7790 @ 12:56 GMT)
| GBP continued lower today against EUR, GBP and the USD. The big 1.7750 level was briefly taken out today in GBP/USD. 1.7880 is now resistance and the pair may even head to 1.7500 in the days ahead, though the momentum may begin to fade. |
|
US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (111.14 @ 12:58 GMT)
| USD/JPY trended ever higher, though, it may stop soon around the 112.00 area as the things are getting a bit overheated here. A fall toward 110.40 support may be the next move. |
|
www.saxobank.com
More hawkish than expected Fed has USD blasting stronger. EUR may focus on 1.1870. SaxoBank strategies
Published: Jul. 01 2005, 05:53 GMT
More hawkish than expected Fed has USD blasting stronger. EUR may focus on 1.1870.
Today's ISM an event risk, but Fed rhetoric dominates as not gesture was made to recent economic weakness.
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
- US Chicago PMI out at 53.6 vs. 54.0 expected.
- US Weekly Natural Gas Storage with build of 92 vs. 85 expected.
- Japan's Employment data in as expected, but Workers' Household Spending declind –1.4% in May.
- Japan Q2 Tankan Survey in better than expected at 18 vs. 16 and Services Tankan also better than expected at 15 vs. 12
Australia Retail Sales out at 0.9% vs. 0.4% expected in May - Australia Building Approvals out at 4.5% in May vs. 0.0% expected.
Market Action: USD much stronger yesterday and atronger overnight vs. JPY and EUR.
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
We got it wrong with the Fed statement. The Fed's complete lack of admission that there are signs of weakness in the economy took us by surprise and is very bullish for the USD here short term as the market is now scratching its head on when the Fed will stop hiking rates. Interestingly, the long treasury market continues to thumb is nose at the Chairman and actually rallied yesterday - and EuroDollar short interest rate futures were unbelievably stable considering what this would supposedly mean for rates further out. Esssentially the market is saying, "Even though you sit there with your finger on the button, Mr. Greenspan, we know you will stop pressing it soon."
The currency market was another matter, as USD bulls found fresh reason in yesterrday's developments (for the short term at least) to put on new positions.
Looking at the anatomy of the statement - the infamous "accommodative" (for current rate level) and "measured" (for pace of hikes going forward) words were retained, while the kicker was this: the Fed interestingly dropped its observation from May 3 that growth had "slowed somewhat" and now states that "Although energy prices have risen further, the expansion remains firm.
The market was clearly caught on the wrong foot here, and with the long weekend approaching, we could see a very large move down in EUR/USD and up in USD/CHF today, barring any desperately bad ISM data at 1400 GMT. This may be the final blow-off rally in the USD before some consolidation further out.
The data from Japan overnight is JPY supportive and USD/JPY's may begin to slow a bit while EUR/JPY looks vulnerable to a reversal lower.
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix's of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2042 @ 05:53 GMT)
| EUR/USD held in the range yesterday as EUR was consolidating impressively in the crosses. Today, the pair may not escape the USD's wrath and we could see a quick removal of 1.2020 and a blast lower to 1.1870 early next week. Resistance comes in at 1.2110 is first resistance and 1.2160 is the reversal level. |
|
British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.7834 @ 05:53 GMT)
| GBP was blasted into oblivion yestereday as more bad data from the UK suggest that the BOE may soon begin to lower rates. The opposite anticipated trajectories of US and UK rates could see GBP/USD heading lower still, if on slightly slower momentum to the big 1.7750 level, beyond which only 1.75 holds the pair back from the abyss. 1.8000 is the big resistance now, but 1.7880 is first resistance. |
|
US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (111.04 @ 05:52 GMT)
| USD/JPY looks like it will head higher to the major 112.00 resistance are now as 110.40 now comes in as support. The momentum may slow a bit here as JPY may begin to assert itself in the crosses again. |
|
http://www.saxobank.com
Thursday, June 30, 2005
GBP collapses on more bad data. Gunslingers also running stops on JPY longs ahead of the FOMC.
GBP collapses on more bad data. Gunslingers also running stops on JPY longs ahead of the FOMC.
http://www.saxobank.com/?id=582&Lan=EN&Au=1&Grp=5&PubTypeID=1Will the FOMC provide a snapback from the latest market moves?
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
- Switzerland CPI fell -0.2% vs. expectations of +0.2%
- UK Nationwide House Prices fell -0.2% in June vs. -0.1% expected
- France Consumer Confidence Indicator for June out at -30 vs. -28 expected
- France Unemployment steady at 10.2% in May, while Unemployment rolls ticked up 1K vs. 2K expected
- Germany Unemployment fell to 11.7% from 11.8% in June (11.8% was expected) while the Unemployment rolls dropped -23K vs. 0K expected
- Norway's Unemployment Rate rose to 3.4% in June from 3.3% as expected
- Italy's PPI fell -0.4% in May vs. 0.0% expected
- UK's final GDP reading for Q1 was in at 0.4% vs. the original 0.7% reading and 0.5% expected.
- EuroZone Consumer Confidence was steady at -15 in June as exepcted while Economic Confidence rose marginally and Services Confidence fell a notch.
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence fell to -3 in June from -1 in May and -2 expected.
- South Africa's May Trade Balance was in at -2840M Rand vs. -650M expected
- US Personal Income for May out at 0.2% vs. 0.3% expected while Personal Spending was out at 0.0% vs.0.1% expected
- US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were out at 310K vs. 325K expected
- Canada GDP for April was out at 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected.
- Canada's Raw Materials Price Index for May out at -3.1% vs. -1.0% expected
- Canada's Industrial Product Price change for May was out at 0.0% vs. 0.1% expected
Market Action: GBP collapsed vs. the market and JPY was also ver weak today as EUR/USD remained rangebound..
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Market sending mixed messages with today's crazy action, as the weak GBP and weak JPY were really the focus. The latter may be a blow-off spike before this evening's FOMC - don't be surprised to see a sudden reversal of direction. Meanwhile, the GBP weakness could be set to continue (especially in the crosses) if more signs crop up that the UK economy is struggling and if further rhetoric from the BOE indicates more likelihood of rate cuts going forward.
The latest uptick in EUR/USD may follow through higher, but we won't know until the FOMC this evening.
No change to the technical comments, as we'd prefer to see how things settle going into tomorrow rather than making a wild stab while the markets are really hot - and they promise to stay that way for the North American session and possibly tomorrow as well as we're headed into a three-day weekend in the US.
_____________________________
(comments from this morning...)
It's tough not to flip-flop on what will unfold today in the wake of the FOMC, but there are really two scenarios that we can boil it down to for now (both of which are 100% sure to include a 25 bps hike in rates - but like expensive perfume, it's the packaging that counts today):
- The Fed leaves its monetary statement entirely unchanged and expresses no worries about the latest softness in some of the data.
Market reaction: a retest of the USD highs with some possible follow through higher before USD corrects weaker again.
- The Fed leaves the monetary policy statemnt largely unchanged, but concedes that numbers have been soft and expresses concern about the numbers, or expresses that continued weakness in the numbers could lead to a change of stance.
Market reaction: USD weakens almost right away and EUR/USD heads quickly toward 1.2180 resistance and even 1.2300 in the days ahead. This is the scenario we prefer.
We don't believe the Fed will nix the infamous "accommodative" word from its monetary statement - but it would be extremely bullish for EUR/USD in the short term if it did.
One important thing to note as we mentioned yesterday, the interest rate correlation with the USD strength/weakness has really faded - in fact the latest research from one of the bigger banks measures it at close to zero, so we shouldn't necessarily expect a rally in yields to interfere with the EUR/USD picture.
We also have the Chicago PMI up today - an especially weak reading there could have the market breathing down the Fed's neck to admit that the economy is looking a bit soft. Of course, tomorrow's ISM number is a better number than the regional manufacturing surveys for measuring the health of the US manufacturing sector. The ISM may bounce a bit in the coming couple of months if companies begin to restock some of their low inventories.
Today offers a really packed calendar. Besides the FOMC meeting and Chicago PMI, we also have France and Germany unemployment figures, UK Consumer Confidence, a Norway rate announcement (a 25 bps hike expected), Canada GDP, and US Personal Income and Spending.
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix's of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2100 @ 12:44 GMT)
| EUR/USD held above 1.2020 yesterday as fresh shorts were taken out of their positions on the "no-break". As outlined in the overall comments, there are two possibilities here depending on the outcome of the FOMC. A break below 1.2020 that holds could usher in new lows toward 1.1870 before we see a recovery while a continued rally through back through 1.2150/60 could spark a further rally toward the 1.2290 resistance much higher. Nominal support comes in at 1.2060 now. |
|
British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.7943 @ 12:44 GMT)
| GBP/USD touched the 1.8000 low yesterday on the lousy UK retail sales data and could test that area again today. The risk for a follow through lower is determined by the outcome of the FOMC meeting, but the technical target comes in around 1.7850 on a break. A rise back above 1.8150 resistance again, on the other hand, would suggest that the 1.8000 to 1.8350 range will hold for now and that the pair could pull itself higher toward the top of the range once more in the days ahead. |
|
US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (110.69 @ 12:44 GMT)
| JPY is struggling to find buyers ahead of the critical Tankan survey in Asia's Thursday session (23:50 GMT tonight), but USD/JPY may have topped out for now with yesterday's 110.62 reading. Now we focus on how the pair holds up during a possible consolidation lower - 109.70 is the first focus as a strong penetration back through that support level would have us smelling a reversal. 110.10 is minor support. |
|
Thursday, June 16, 2005
Tuesday, June 07, 2005
Daily FX :: Euro Holds the Bounce
Euro Holds the Bounce
Written by Boris Schlossberg Senior Currency Analyst
Tuesday, 07 June 2005 GMT
Because of a very light economic calendar trading tonight is dominated by
official commentary which is providing a mild bid tone to the EUR/USD.
Overnight, Chairman Greenspan failed to inspire the markets with cautious
wording that clearly reflected his concern over the latest weak NFP
numbers as well as frustration with the continuous flattening of the yield
curve in the bond market.
A flat yield curve occurs when the longer dated fixed income securities
trade at a very narrow spread to the shorter term instruments and
indicates that the market is anticipating a slowdown or even a recession.
Mr. Greenspan’s comments last night offered no strong arguments to combat
that opinion, so the FX market seized on the idea that Fed rate hikes may
top out at 3.5% in a few months time which would be dollar bearish because
it would cap the carry trade advantage the greenback now enjoys against
the yen and the euro
On the euro side, comments by Michael Deppler Director, of the European
Department of International Monetary Fund that the ECB may not need to
lower rates just yet, helped convince the market that the euro yields will
not fall in the near future. Mr. Deppler noted that that if growth does
not pick up by Q3 then a cut would be valid. “It is appropriate for
Eurozone rates to stay on hold as the slowdown seems temporary”, he said.
According to analysts at IFR this idea appeared to have been the best
compromise yet between those looking for rates to be held and those who
urge the ECB act quickly and helped to buoy the euro in morning trade.
Incidentally, Mr. Deppler also stated that 1.20-1.30 range was just about
right for the pair, a view with which we concur as we believe the EUR/USD
will now enter a protracted period of consolidation and range trading
because neither currency offers strong value.
Meanwhile both yen and pound have also rallied against the greenback
despite less then stellar eco data overnight. In Japan, Household Spending
declined to –3.0% on year over year basis – more than the –2.0% projected
drop. Japan remains gripped in the hands of deflation and progress is
small and slow. In UK the worst decline in housing prices in 7 months did
not prevent sterling from reaching the 1.8300 figure only 2 days after it
nearly broke through the 1.8100 level. The dollar is overbought and it
look like the market will be a lot more forgiving towards the majors this
week than the greenback.
Daily FX :: Dollar Bull Lost Its Horns
Dollar Bull Lost Its Horns
Written by Sam Shenker Technical Currency Analyst
Tuesday, 07 June 2005 GMT
Technical Overview
• Antipodeans post the biggest gains against US dollar
• Canadian dollar crosses reverse their loses
• Yen crosses give back some of their gains
Previous session overview:
Dollar continued to lose ground to the majors with Antipodeans posting the
largest gains among the majors.
EUR/USD – Euro bulls managed to push their way deeper into the dollar held
territory with the latest move about to break above the 1.2300 figure. As
the euro longs continue to recapture some of the previously lost territory
the move toward the 1.2500 figure will be a critical development for the
single currency, but a break above 1.2500 will most likely will be capped
by the 1.2700-30 range a strong resistance which marked the previous 2005
low. Also traders should expect quiet a few exotic option strike barriers
to be placed around the 1.2500 figure, making it a perfect target for the
institutional traders to aim for. Indicators signal a maturing trend with
ADX (DMI) on the daily chart is at 46.3. Stochastic remains oversold on
the daily chart at 14.86, which is indicative of a strong trend. The
Stochastic on the dealer (4HR) chart is neutral at 34.42. RSI is treading
above oversold on the daily chart at 30.19 with the 4-hour chart RSI
neutral at 45.28. MACD remains deep below the zero line on the daily chart
and is sloping upward toward the zero line on the dealer 4(HR) chart. In
case the reversal fails greenback longs will most likely resume their
advance and push the pair toward the psychologically important 1.2000
figure.
Key Levels
Level
Resistance
Details
1.2393
Major
23.6 Fib of the 1.3129-1.2165 dollar rally
1.2342
Intermediate
June 3 daily spike high
1.2293
Minor
June 6 daily high
Level
Support
Details
1.2163
Minor
June 1 daily spike low
1.2124
Intermediate
Sep 20 daily spike low
1.2027
Major
Sep 8 daily spike low
GBP/USD – British pound traders remained supportive of the cable as the
pair made its way toward the 1.8300 figure and is currently setting its
sights on the 1.8500 figure. A move toward the 1.8500 figure will most
likely see cable longs encounter stops placed by the dollar longs above
the 1.8400 figure with exotic option barriers most likely placed around
the 1.8450-1.8500 figure. A break above the 1.8500 figure will be
difficult to muster, due to the major resistance marked by the previous
2005 low. Indicators signal maturing trend with ADX (DMI) at 54.74. The
Stochastic on the daily chart is now treading above oversold at 25.75,
giving the sterling longs plenty of room to maneuver. The dealer (4HR)
chart stochastic is neutral at 61.8. RSI is treading above oversold at
37.57 on the daily chart and is neutral at 58.61 on the 4-hour chart. MACD
is making a bullish crossover below the zero line on the daily chart and
is sloping upward toward the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart. In case
the cable longs fail to make a further advance, dollar traders should
expect the cable to tumble below the 1.8000 figure.
Key levels
Level
Resistance
Details
1.8345
Major
May 19 daily high
1.8290
Intermediate
23.6 Fib of the Apr-May dollar rally
1.8212
Minor
20-day SMA
Level
Support
Details
1.8076
Minor
5-day SMA
1.8035
Intermediate
June 5 daily low
1.79.25
Major
2005 Low
Daily FX :: Return of the Euro
Return of the Euro
Written by Boris Schlossberg Senior Currency Strategist
Monday, 06 June 2005 GMT
Well it sure must have been fun for the dollar bulls. The unit gained an
astounding 13 cents against the euro in merely 2 months and reversed the
whole euro rally of late 2004. At that time Newsweek came out with its
infamous “The Incredible Shrinking Dollar” cover story proving once again
that there are no worse traders than the popular press. Of course now that
the tide has turned we are waiting for the Time magazine article to
solemnly proclaim “The End of the Euro!” which will no doubt mark the top
of the dollar rally
Meanwhile, the euro seems to need no help from mass media as the unit is
recovering smartly in European session tonight buoyed by a recovery in
Retail PMI figures which have moved back up above the 50 expansionary
level to 50.2. In fact Germany’s retail sales jumped to the highest
reading in 5 months while French numbers increased for the 1st time in 4
months.
Talk, both in Europe and US is turning to interest rate policy with
European officials suggesting that ECB lower it ‘s benchmark rate while
some analysts project that US may soon cease hiking the Fed funds rate
further. German Deputy Finance Minister Pfaffenbach was the latest
European politician to press the ECB for a rate cut in a Bloomberg TV
interview tonight. We doubt that ECB will be swayed by the rhetoric, given
that the euro has already declined by 1300 points and may have already
done the stimulative work for the bank. However, even if it does lower
rates the ECB rate cut is unlikely to be more than 25bp. The ECB is far
more concerned with price stability rather than spurring growth and is
loathe to enact inflationary policies. In US meanwhile traders will follow
Alan Greenspan’s testimony to Congress on Thursday to ascertain if last
Friday’s soft NFP figures may have tempered his enthusiasm for additional
rate hikes. If US is indeed in the final phase of its tightening cycle
then the carry trade advantage enjoyed by the greenback may soon lose its
luster, and the market will begin refocusing on US’s deteriorating Balance
Sheet position.
--
http://www.dailyfx.com/index2.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1422&Itemid=39&pop=1&page=0
Daily FX :: “Dollar Bull Is About To Lose Its Horns”
EUR/USD – Euro bulls are finally getting a chance to exalt their revenge
upon the greenback bulls as the dollar long lost momentum when the pair
approached the 1.2150 level. As the euro bulls finally getting their
chance to take back some of the territory lost to the dollar, their
advance will most likely will be capped by the 1.2700-30 range a strong
resistance which marked the previous 2005 low. Also traders should expect
quiet a few exotic option strike barriers to be placed around the 1.2500
figure, making it a perfect target for the institutional traders to aim
for. Indicators signal a maturing trend with ADX (DMI) on the daily chart
is at 38.55. Stochastic remains extremely oversold on the daily chart at
9.05, which is indicative of a strong trend. The Stochastic on the dealer
(4HR) chart is neutral at 38.36. RSI is extremely oversold on the daily
chart at 19.17 with the 4-hour chart RSI neutral at 44.33. MACD remains
deep below the zero line on both the daily chart and is slopping upward
toward the zero line on the dealer 4(HR) chart. In case the reversal fails
greenback longs will most likely resume their advance and push the pair
toward the psychologically important 1.2000 figure.
http://www.dailyfx.com/index2.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1410&Itemid=39&pop=1&page=0
Monday, May 30, 2005
Buy Eur/USD @1.2464 Target +15pips (Target Met)
Target Met +15 pips
Buy Eur/USD @1.2464 Target +15pips
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