Inverted hummer formation in the USD/CHF daily chart, a bullish day is expected to follow for the first day on the next week on Monday 15th, August, 2005
Expected bullish bar on Monday 15th 2005, buy on break of 1.2538
Saturday, August 13, 2005
Inverted hummer formation in the USD/CHF daily chart
Inverted hummer formation in the USD/CHF daily chart, a bullish day is expected to follow for the first day on the next week on Monday 15th, August, 2005
Expected bullish bar on Monday 15th 2005, buy on break of 1.2538
Inverted Hammer
Hanging man formation in the EUR/USD daily chart
Hanging man formation in the EUR/USD daily chart, a bearish day is expected to follow on Monday 15th August when the market opens.
Hammer and Hanging Man in Candlesticks formations patterns
The first pair, hammer and hanging man, are identical with small bodies and long lower shadows. The second pair, shooting star and inverted hammer, are also identical with small bodies and long upper shadows. Only preceding price action and further confirmation determine the bullish or bearish nature of these candlesticks. The hammer and inverted hammer form after a decline and are bullish reversal patterns, while the shooting star and hanging man form after an advance and are bearish reversal patterns.
The hammer and hanging man look exactly alike, but have different implications based on the preceding price action. Both have small real bodies (black or white), long lower shadows and short or non-existent upper shadows. As with most single and double candlestick formations, the hammer and hanging man require confirmation before action.
The hammer is a bullish reversal pattern that forms after a decline. In addition to a potential trend reversal, hammers can mark bottoms or support levels. After a decline, hammers signal a bullish revival. The low of the long lower shadow implies that sellers drove prices lower during the session. However, the strong finish indicates that buyers regained their footing to end the session on a strong note. While this may seem enough to act on, hammers require further bullish confirmation. The low of the hammer shows that plenty of sellers remain. Further buying pressure, and preferably on expanding volume, is needed before acting. Such confirmation could come from a gap up or long white candlestick. Hammers are similar to selling climaxes and heavy volume can serve to reinforce the validity of the reversal.
The hanging man is a bearish reversal pattern that can also mark a top or resistance level. Forming after an advance, a hanging man signals that selling pressure is starting to increase. The low of the long lower shadow confirms that sellers pushed prices lower during the session. Even though the bulls regained their footing and drove prices higher by the finish, the appearance of selling pressure raises the yellow flag. As with the hammer, a hanging man requires bearish confirmation before action. Such confirmation can come as a gap down or long black candlestick on heavy volume.
Tuesday, August 09, 2005
Thursday, August 04, 2005
Wednesday, August 03, 2005
The EUR/USD descended down to 1.2150 in the Asian session as was predicted in the previous post, collecting about from 20-50 ips depending about exit strategies. Now the pair mey a strong support at 1.2150 reversing the direction to reach 1.2206 at the time I am writing this comment. Oanda FxTrade platform is at 12.00EST, so everyday starts at 12.00 EST, (-7 GMT)
Tuesday, August 02, 2005
The EUR/USD failed to break the 1.2250 again!
The Eur/$ pair failed to break the 1.2250 again, will it break it in the next few days?
Monday, August 01, 2005
EUR/USD didn't break the 1.2250 resistance level today.
EUR failed to break the 1.2250 today, if the price moved lower today in the bears side, then a shooting star will be formed paving the way for a further down movement of the EURO.
Open Trades at Oanda as of 11.30 EST
Open Trades in Oanda as of 11.30 Est, prices may face some more retracement during the remaining hours of this day.
EUR/USD did make a retrace for 60 pips.
Saturday, July 30, 2005
Friday, July 29, 2005
Thursday, July 28, 2005
Set your stop loss to 1.7474
Now any one can just close the trade when he think he got the pips that satisfy him, because the trade may turn against us and the net profit will be zero.
Have a nice time.
Wednesday, July 27, 2005
Bullish Engulfing Pattern
As implied in its name, this trend suggests that the bulls have taken control of a security’s price movement from the bears. This type of pattern usually accompanies a declining trend in a security, suggesting that a low or end to a security's decline has occurred. However, as usual in candlestick analysis, the trader must take the preceding and following days' prices into account before making any decisions regarding the security.
GBP/USD order placed yesterday
Tuesday, July 26, 2005
Monday, July 25, 2005
Saturday, July 23, 2005
Thursday, July 21, 2005
Wednesday, July 20, 2005
Tuesday, July 19, 2005
EUR/USD went down as predicted in the last post
Monday, July 18, 2005
Tuesday, July 12, 2005
Thursday, July 07, 2005
Screenshots starting again of my game account.
I will again say that I am still a newbie and trying to learn as much as everyone in the fx market.
SL reaches -32 pips
I am still short on the usd, I just set up a stop loss for all those who must use stop loss, but i am short on the EUR/USD still.
Wednesday, July 06, 2005
Tuesday, July 05, 2005
Monday, July 04, 2005
Buy EUR/USD @ 1.1898 Target +12 pips
I am expecting some retracement here for at least +12 pips, so i am placing this order but better to have a tight stop at 1.1860, If the Eur/USD break this range then more downward movement is expected.
Sunday, July 03, 2005
Friday, July 01, 2005
EUR/USD still lingering above support ---Saxo Bank Analysis---
Published: Jul. 01 2005, 13:09 GMT
EUR/USD still lingering above support, while AUD, NZD and JPY continue to suffer under the USD's weight.
EUR may yet join the weaklings vs. the USD later today or early next week. ISM up at 14:00 GMT.
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
- Germany and EuroZone Manufacturing PMI's were marginally better than expected in June
- The South African Investec PMI jumped to 59.8 in June vs. 53.6 in May.
- Germany's Chancellor Schroeder lost a confidence vote in the Germany parliament, which will usher in the holding of new elections in September
Market Action: GBP, NZD, AUD and JPY were weak with the EUR and USD strong in the European Session today.
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
No new developments today to challenge the view from this morning, though the fall in US EuroDollar 3-month and Treasury futures today in Europe could be indicative of a USD that will strengthen further (even if we have argued that there is littl correlation with rates and currencies lately). It's interesting to see EUR holding up so well as its oversold levels in the crosses would seem largely unwound by now for the short term. The EUR/GBP rally is simply mind-boggling and may need a little consolidation, which is likely if 1.2000 finally gives way in EUR/USD as we expect.
Still, an ISM under 50 could be enough of a shocker to delay or cancel a EURUSD sell-off, though there's no reason to expect the ISM won't be in line with the 51+ expectations. Sio the break lower may yet come today.
The technical comments are partially updated depending on the activity today.
__________________________
(commentary from this morning...)
We got it wrong with the Fed statement. The Fed's complete lack of admission that there are signs of weakness in the economy took us by surprise and is very bullish for the USD here short term as the market is now scratching its head on when the Fed will stop hiking rates. Interestingly, the long treasury market continues to thumb is nose at the Chairman and actually rallied yesterday - and EuroDollar short interest rate futures were unbelievably stable considering what this would supposedly mean for rates further out. Esssentially the market is saying, "Even though you sit there with your finger on the button, Mr. Greenspan, we know you will stop pressing it soon."
The currency market was another matter, as USD bulls found fresh reason in yesterrday's developments (for the short term at least) to put on new positions.
Looking at the anatomy of the statement - the infamous "accommodative" (for current rate level) and "measured" (for pace of hikes going forward) words were retained, while the kicker was this: the Fed interestingly dropped its observation from May 3 that growth had "slowed somewhat" and now states that "Although energy prices have risen further, the expansion remains firm.
The market was clearly caught on the wrong foot here, and with the long weekend approaching, we could see a very large move down in EUR/USD and up in USD/CHF today, barring any desperately bad ISM data at 1400 GMT. This may be the final blow-off rally in the USD before some consolidation further out.
The data from Japan overnight is JPY supportive and USD/JPY's may begin to slow a bit while EUR/JPY looks vulnerable to a reversal lower.
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix's of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2081 @ 12:51 GMT)
| EUR/USD held in the range today between 1.2020 and 1.2110 as EUR continued to consolidate stronger in the crosses. LAter today, the pair may not escape the USD's wrath and we could see a quick removal of 1.2020 and a blast lower to 1.1870 early next week if the 1.2110 area holds. 1.2160 is the reversal level if things develop against our expectations. |
|
British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.7790 @ 12:56 GMT)
| GBP continued lower today against EUR, GBP and the USD. The big 1.7750 level was briefly taken out today in GBP/USD. 1.7880 is now resistance and the pair may even head to 1.7500 in the days ahead, though the momentum may begin to fade. |
|
US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (111.14 @ 12:58 GMT)
| USD/JPY trended ever higher, though, it may stop soon around the 112.00 area as the things are getting a bit overheated here. A fall toward 110.40 support may be the next move. |
|
www.saxobank.com
More hawkish than expected Fed has USD blasting stronger. EUR may focus on 1.1870. SaxoBank strategies
Published: Jul. 01 2005, 05:53 GMT
More hawkish than expected Fed has USD blasting stronger. EUR may focus on 1.1870.
Today's ISM an event risk, but Fed rhetoric dominates as not gesture was made to recent economic weakness.
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
- US Chicago PMI out at 53.6 vs. 54.0 expected.
- US Weekly Natural Gas Storage with build of 92 vs. 85 expected.
- Japan's Employment data in as expected, but Workers' Household Spending declind –1.4% in May.
- Japan Q2 Tankan Survey in better than expected at 18 vs. 16 and Services Tankan also better than expected at 15 vs. 12
Australia Retail Sales out at 0.9% vs. 0.4% expected in May - Australia Building Approvals out at 4.5% in May vs. 0.0% expected.
Market Action: USD much stronger yesterday and atronger overnight vs. JPY and EUR.
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
We got it wrong with the Fed statement. The Fed's complete lack of admission that there are signs of weakness in the economy took us by surprise and is very bullish for the USD here short term as the market is now scratching its head on when the Fed will stop hiking rates. Interestingly, the long treasury market continues to thumb is nose at the Chairman and actually rallied yesterday - and EuroDollar short interest rate futures were unbelievably stable considering what this would supposedly mean for rates further out. Esssentially the market is saying, "Even though you sit there with your finger on the button, Mr. Greenspan, we know you will stop pressing it soon."
The currency market was another matter, as USD bulls found fresh reason in yesterrday's developments (for the short term at least) to put on new positions.
Looking at the anatomy of the statement - the infamous "accommodative" (for current rate level) and "measured" (for pace of hikes going forward) words were retained, while the kicker was this: the Fed interestingly dropped its observation from May 3 that growth had "slowed somewhat" and now states that "Although energy prices have risen further, the expansion remains firm.
The market was clearly caught on the wrong foot here, and with the long weekend approaching, we could see a very large move down in EUR/USD and up in USD/CHF today, barring any desperately bad ISM data at 1400 GMT. This may be the final blow-off rally in the USD before some consolidation further out.
The data from Japan overnight is JPY supportive and USD/JPY's may begin to slow a bit while EUR/JPY looks vulnerable to a reversal lower.
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix's of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2042 @ 05:53 GMT)
| EUR/USD held in the range yesterday as EUR was consolidating impressively in the crosses. Today, the pair may not escape the USD's wrath and we could see a quick removal of 1.2020 and a blast lower to 1.1870 early next week. Resistance comes in at 1.2110 is first resistance and 1.2160 is the reversal level. |
|
British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.7834 @ 05:53 GMT)
| GBP was blasted into oblivion yestereday as more bad data from the UK suggest that the BOE may soon begin to lower rates. The opposite anticipated trajectories of US and UK rates could see GBP/USD heading lower still, if on slightly slower momentum to the big 1.7750 level, beyond which only 1.75 holds the pair back from the abyss. 1.8000 is the big resistance now, but 1.7880 is first resistance. |
|
US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (111.04 @ 05:52 GMT)
| USD/JPY looks like it will head higher to the major 112.00 resistance are now as 110.40 now comes in as support. The momentum may slow a bit here as JPY may begin to assert itself in the crosses again. |
|
http://www.saxobank.com
Thursday, June 30, 2005
GBP collapses on more bad data. Gunslingers also running stops on JPY longs ahead of the FOMC.
GBP collapses on more bad data. Gunslingers also running stops on JPY longs ahead of the FOMC.
http://www.saxobank.com/?id=582&Lan=EN&Au=1&Grp=5&PubTypeID=1Will the FOMC provide a snapback from the latest market moves?
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
- Switzerland CPI fell -0.2% vs. expectations of +0.2%
- UK Nationwide House Prices fell -0.2% in June vs. -0.1% expected
- France Consumer Confidence Indicator for June out at -30 vs. -28 expected
- France Unemployment steady at 10.2% in May, while Unemployment rolls ticked up 1K vs. 2K expected
- Germany Unemployment fell to 11.7% from 11.8% in June (11.8% was expected) while the Unemployment rolls dropped -23K vs. 0K expected
- Norway's Unemployment Rate rose to 3.4% in June from 3.3% as expected
- Italy's PPI fell -0.4% in May vs. 0.0% expected
- UK's final GDP reading for Q1 was in at 0.4% vs. the original 0.7% reading and 0.5% expected.
- EuroZone Consumer Confidence was steady at -15 in June as exepcted while Economic Confidence rose marginally and Services Confidence fell a notch.
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence fell to -3 in June from -1 in May and -2 expected.
- South Africa's May Trade Balance was in at -2840M Rand vs. -650M expected
- US Personal Income for May out at 0.2% vs. 0.3% expected while Personal Spending was out at 0.0% vs.0.1% expected
- US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were out at 310K vs. 325K expected
- Canada GDP for April was out at 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected.
- Canada's Raw Materials Price Index for May out at -3.1% vs. -1.0% expected
- Canada's Industrial Product Price change for May was out at 0.0% vs. 0.1% expected
Market Action: GBP collapsed vs. the market and JPY was also ver weak today as EUR/USD remained rangebound..
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Market sending mixed messages with today's crazy action, as the weak GBP and weak JPY were really the focus. The latter may be a blow-off spike before this evening's FOMC - don't be surprised to see a sudden reversal of direction. Meanwhile, the GBP weakness could be set to continue (especially in the crosses) if more signs crop up that the UK economy is struggling and if further rhetoric from the BOE indicates more likelihood of rate cuts going forward.
The latest uptick in EUR/USD may follow through higher, but we won't know until the FOMC this evening.
No change to the technical comments, as we'd prefer to see how things settle going into tomorrow rather than making a wild stab while the markets are really hot - and they promise to stay that way for the North American session and possibly tomorrow as well as we're headed into a three-day weekend in the US.
_____________________________
(comments from this morning...)
It's tough not to flip-flop on what will unfold today in the wake of the FOMC, but there are really two scenarios that we can boil it down to for now (both of which are 100% sure to include a 25 bps hike in rates - but like expensive perfume, it's the packaging that counts today):
- The Fed leaves its monetary statement entirely unchanged and expresses no worries about the latest softness in some of the data.
Market reaction: a retest of the USD highs with some possible follow through higher before USD corrects weaker again.
- The Fed leaves the monetary policy statemnt largely unchanged, but concedes that numbers have been soft and expresses concern about the numbers, or expresses that continued weakness in the numbers could lead to a change of stance.
Market reaction: USD weakens almost right away and EUR/USD heads quickly toward 1.2180 resistance and even 1.2300 in the days ahead. This is the scenario we prefer.
We don't believe the Fed will nix the infamous "accommodative" word from its monetary statement - but it would be extremely bullish for EUR/USD in the short term if it did.
One important thing to note as we mentioned yesterday, the interest rate correlation with the USD strength/weakness has really faded - in fact the latest research from one of the bigger banks measures it at close to zero, so we shouldn't necessarily expect a rally in yields to interfere with the EUR/USD picture.
We also have the Chicago PMI up today - an especially weak reading there could have the market breathing down the Fed's neck to admit that the economy is looking a bit soft. Of course, tomorrow's ISM number is a better number than the regional manufacturing surveys for measuring the health of the US manufacturing sector. The ISM may bounce a bit in the coming couple of months if companies begin to restock some of their low inventories.
Today offers a really packed calendar. Besides the FOMC meeting and Chicago PMI, we also have France and Germany unemployment figures, UK Consumer Confidence, a Norway rate announcement (a 25 bps hike expected), Canada GDP, and US Personal Income and Spending.
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix's of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2100 @ 12:44 GMT)
| EUR/USD held above 1.2020 yesterday as fresh shorts were taken out of their positions on the "no-break". As outlined in the overall comments, there are two possibilities here depending on the outcome of the FOMC. A break below 1.2020 that holds could usher in new lows toward 1.1870 before we see a recovery while a continued rally through back through 1.2150/60 could spark a further rally toward the 1.2290 resistance much higher. Nominal support comes in at 1.2060 now. |
|
British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.7943 @ 12:44 GMT)
| GBP/USD touched the 1.8000 low yesterday on the lousy UK retail sales data and could test that area again today. The risk for a follow through lower is determined by the outcome of the FOMC meeting, but the technical target comes in around 1.7850 on a break. A rise back above 1.8150 resistance again, on the other hand, would suggest that the 1.8000 to 1.8350 range will hold for now and that the pair could pull itself higher toward the top of the range once more in the days ahead. |
|
US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (110.69 @ 12:44 GMT)
| JPY is struggling to find buyers ahead of the critical Tankan survey in Asia's Thursday session (23:50 GMT tonight), but USD/JPY may have topped out for now with yesterday's 110.62 reading. Now we focus on how the pair holds up during a possible consolidation lower - 109.70 is the first focus as a strong penetration back through that support level would have us smelling a reversal. 110.10 is minor support. |
|
Thursday, June 16, 2005
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
