| Currency: | GBP/USD |
| Entry Level: | 1.8675 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | -305 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
| Currency: | GBP/JPY |
| Entry Level: | 223.59 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | +25 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
| Currency: | EUR/JPY |
| Entry Level: | 150.09 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | +16 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
EURUSD
The latest push higher broke through 1.2712, today's high / trendline resistance, to extend gains to 1.2745. Further upside is seen towards 1.2755/65, though overbought hourlies warn of corrective pullback. 1.2660 underpins fresh rallies.
Res: 1.2779, 1.2806, 1.2840, 1.2850
Sup: 1.2745, 1.2733, 1.2710, 1.2695
GBPUSD
Surged through 1.8923, today's high, to dent 1.9000 barrier, with 1.9001 being reached so far, just under 1.9017, 11 week trendline resistance. Break there is required to open further gains towards 1.9025/40, possibly 1.9075 on a break. Extremely overbought hourly studies warn of correction before fresh rally. 1.8925/00 offers initial support.
Res: 1.9017, 1.9025, 1.9040, 1.9075
Sup: 1.8954, 1.8925, 1.8903, 1.8880
USDJPY
Rallied strongly this morning, following correction from 116.82, 22 Aug previous high, to 116.07, 23 Aug low. Breach of 116.82 resistance has triggered fresh gains above 117.00 to reach 117.24 high so far. Further gains are seen towards 117.37/85 25/19 July highs. Overbought hourlies warn of correction, though 116.35/15 expected to contain dips and maintain bulls.
Res: 117.37, 117.55, 117.85, 118.00
Sup: 116.82, 116.65, 116.35, 116.15
USDCHF
Continues to trend higher from 1.2181, 21 Aug low, with yesterday's renewed strength from 1.2306 higher low, extending gains to 1.2404 high so far. Corrective pullback is underway, with 1.2350/20 area offering underpinning fresh advance. Break above 1.2404 opens 1.2443, 15 Aug high, next.
Res: 1.2404, 1.2425, 1.2443, 1.2465
Sup: 1.2350, 1.2338, 1.2320, 1.2290
| Currency: | GBP/USD |
| Entry Level: | 1.8675 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | -186 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
| Currency: | GBP/JPY |
| Entry Level: | 223.59 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | -46 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
| Currency: | EUR/JPY |
| Entry Level: | 150.09 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | -26 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
| Currency: | GBP/USD |
| Entry Level: | 1.8675 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | -140 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
| Currency: | GBP/JPY |
| Entry Level: | 223.59 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | +6 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
| Currency: | EUR/JPY |
| Entry Level: | 150.09 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | -2 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
| | |
| | |
| EUR/USD The Euro rallied on yesterday as a result of the FOMC meeting, resuming the rise during today Asian session. The break of the 1.2600 resistance confirmed the bullish momentum on the daily charts. Resistance is now formed by 1.2640 which is being tested at the time of this writing and 1.2660 higher. Resistance also emerges at 1.2700. The downward trendline resistance formed on the daily charts is now seen around 1.2650. Support is formed by 1.2600 on first place, backed by 1.2575 and 1.2525. We are expecting the Euro to face a solid barrier at 1.2660. Current quote is 1.2636 @ 03:20 GMT Recommended trades: Short in the 1.2660 area, stop above 1.2690, objectives at and below 1.2600. | |
| Currency: | GBP/USD |
| Entry Level: | 1.8675 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | -100 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
| Currency: | GBP/JPY |
| Entry Level: | 223.59 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | -8 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
| Currency: | EUR/JPY |
| Entry Level: | 150.09 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | -2 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
| Currency: | GBP/USD |
| Entry Level: | 1.8675 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | -100 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
FXAnalytics
http://fxanalytics.fxstreet.com/
Event Risk – Low
Forecasted Release Volatility – within Daily Average True Range.
Event Risk – Medium/High
Forecasted Release Volatility – within Daily Average True Range.
This release will often exceed DATR but has lately had a muted impact on the actual direction of the dollar.
Event Risk – Low
Forecasted Release Volatility – within Daily Average True Range.
ActionForex.com
http://www.actionforex.com
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report
Dollar Softer, FOMC Awaited
Dollar continues to trade with an undertone today as traders awaits FOMC rate announcement. Euro was boosted slightly earlier today after stronger than expected German Ifo business sentiment which rose to 105.3 to Oct. Disappointing Existing home sales, which dropped more than expected by 1.9% to 6.18m annualized rate is adding some weights to the greenback too. Both impact on the market is limited as traders are still cautious ahead of the FOMC statement.
As mentioned before, expectation has been built up for hawkish fed statement despite keeping range unchanged at 5.25%. However, the major question remains on market's reaction and it's doubtful on how hawkish the Fed is needed to sound to keep dollar buyers jumping in. An hawkish statement that stress the persistently high core inflation will likely spike higher the greenback. But, if no sustained buying, we could see an equally sharp reversal as selling-on-news comes into dominance. Beware of the volatility.
RBNZ is expected to keep overnight cash rate unchanged at 7.25% in the coming Asian session.
Read full report (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY) here.
USD/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.07; (P) 119.35; (R1) 119.62; More
USD/JPY's retreat from 119.64 reaches 118.98 but is still supported by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 118.98). As discussed before, short term risk remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 118.54 support. Firm break above 119.86 will indicate recent rally has resumed for 121.38 high.
However, below 118.54 support will indicate rebound from 118.04 has completed and bring retest of 118.04 low. Break will indicate corrective fall from 119.86 has resumed and should bring testing of 117.37 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 108.99 to 119.86 at 117.29, 55 days EMA at 117.51, short term rising channel at 117.49).
In the bigger picture, with multi-year trend line resistance (147.68 to 135.20 then to 121.38) broken, the strong medium term rise from 108.99 could either be resumption of the year long up trend from 101.65 to 121.38, in other words, the correction from 121.38 has totally finished at 108.99 already. Or it could just be part of the consolidation that started at 121.38. But in either case, a retest of 121.38 high should be seen.
However, firm break below 117.37 cluster support will be the first signal that whole medium term rally from 108.99 has completed and deeper decline should be seen towards outer channel line (now at 115.43) first.
EURUSD-EUR continues to hold below 1.2613/41 levels since it rejected higher-level prices and sold off on Monday. This suggests that it is still maintaining its short-term negative outlook and an attack on its Jun/July’06 lows at the 1.2477/59 zone cannot be ruled out. If a penetration and negation of these levels are seen, EUR could be targeting 1.2333/25 levels, its Jan/April’06 high and its Mar’06 high at 1.2210 ahead of its range breakout price target at 1.2000 area established by measuring the width of the range and projecting it from the breakout point. Both the RSI indicator, which is pushing to the down and the patterns of lower highs and lower lows now seen on the daily chart support the above scenario.Conversely,a sustained violation of the 1.2613/41(Sept’06 lows/Oct 19’06 high) levels is required to invalidate the above view. In such a situation,EUR would push towards its oct’06 high at 1.2765 and Sept 22’06 high at 1.2830.On the whole, as long as EUR holds below 1.2613/41 levels, a challenge and a possible break below its broader range bottom is possible.
Support Comments
1.2459/77 Jun/July’06 lows
1.2333/25 April 19'06 low
1.2210 Mar’06 high
1.2000 Broader range breakout price target
Resistance Comments
1.2560/80 Oct 10’06 high/200 ema/Sept 26’06 low
1.2639/29 Sept’06 lows/.618 Ret (July-Aug rally)
1.2714 100 ema
1.2830/79 Aug 31’06 high/Sept’06 highs
| Currency: | GBP/USD |
| Entry Level: | 1.8675 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | -83 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
EUR
Stronger than expected IFO figures, but lower than expected Import Prices this morning. German CPI figures have been coming out at a rather high level today. All in, the EUR might be supported short-term by data, but the market thinks the FOMC Statement will be more important tonight.
USD
Richmond Fed disappointed yesterday, but Core Inflation in the US has been uncomfortably high lately. Thus, we expect "no change" tonight, but also a Statement that is moderately hawkish and expressing concerns over the trend in core inflation figures.
JPY
Is there too much complacency in the use of JPY as a funding currency in Carry Trades? Watch out for the short end of the JPY yield curve. Last time it spiked higher, we saw a lot of turmoil in Emerging Markets and some jittery JPY trading (not really strength). We could soon see more rate speculation in Japan. The release of the Trade Balance this morning should not have any noticeable impact on JPY, but the FOMC Rate Announcement might result in some movements.
CHF
Still the European equivalent of JPY. The quite good figures lately have not been able to help CHF out of its bearish trend.
GBP
A strong come-back this morning - especially vs. AUD. Might go higher on that note. Note that GBPAUD broke the important 2.4650 level, which we still maintain in the FX Order Book (see below). The cross is in our opinion still a sell, but contigent of a break of 0.76 in AUDUSD.
CAD
There is a lot of noise in the market over a seemingly record high short position of CAD. We might be in for a short-squeeze, which would fit quite handsomely with the soft landing theme and further AUD strength.
AUD
Was the bullish trend in the AUD-crosses running into a brick-wall this morning? Perhaps 0.76 in AUDUSD is still capping the upside in other crosses. We are close to breaking that level and that might result in a blow-off in overnight trading.
NZD
Finally, looking like a real turnaround. The CPI figures were lower than expected o/n and we are now waiting for the RBNZ Rate Decision tonight. We expect no change like a big minority of analysts. Why? Because inflation has clearly come down from its rather elevated level in 2Q and because NZ policy makers are usually not keen to help the NZD going higher. Officials are more likely to come out and bad-mouth their own currency like they use to.
| Currency: | GBP/USD |
| Entry Level: | 1.8675 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | -83 pips |
| Target: | - |
| Exit: | - |
| Entry Level: | 1.8675 |
| Position: | Sell |
| Prof-Loss: | -73 pips |
| Target: | - |
