GBP/USD 4hours chart analysis 19 september 2007

G/U 4 hours chart showed alo the heavy resistance that GBP met at the 50 EMA.

GBP/JPY Daily Analysis 19 September 2007

G/J had been moving sideways on the daily chart. It had been in the range between 234.50 and 228.50. Breakout above or below these levels will confirm a a short term trend, but for nowI think it is better to stay neutral.

Daily GBP/USD analysis 19 september 2007

Daily G/$ chart showed the G/$ strongly rejected the 50 MA, and moved all the way to break the 2.0000 figure again today. For now I think if it broke the 50 MA and closed above it then may be we will see a new bull short term trend until 2.0250 may be.

EUR/USD daily chart update

EUR/USD daily chart. The EUR broke the support at 1.3330. The direction for tomorrow 3rd April 2007 is bearish.

GBP/JPY weekly chart

GBP is at 234.90 as of the time writing the post. As indicated in the chart, this is a very tough resistance to break. If the price closed above the current level, then more move north is more likely to occur.

GBP/USD Daily Chart update

If you look at the Doji candle formed on 13th of Feb, you will notice it was followed by a strong bull candle, and the patter repeats as of 19th and 22nd February, and lastly today. This may strongly suggest that we may see a a bullish candle as well. What supports this theory is the strong support line as shown in the chart.

GBP/USD Daily Chart update

GBP/USD is still maintaining a positive outlook, supported by the strong support level as shown in the chart above, where a support line is drawn from 1.9400 on 13th Feb 2007, to 1.9431 on 19th Feb 2007, 1.9459 on 22nd Feb 2007, and finally 1.9514 today 28th February. Although the bullish outlook remains intact, yet the movement in GBP/USD the last couple of week is chaotic, with lack of strong trend direction.

GBP/USD update

GBP/USD reached 1.9651, and then started to bounce on the H4 "Long breakout" level. I moved south reaching 1.9617, an then it found a support on the R1 resistance which is 1.9620 today. Now, there may be sideway movement as of today, but further moving north is not yet ruled out completely. As of the time speaking the GBP/USD is 1.9632 again. So, may be it is resuming its movement north (aka bullish movement)

GBP/USD 15 minutes chart

GBP/USD broke the 1.9639 which is the H4 Long breakout level suggesting that it may continue north as of today. If price today closes at its current levels or higher, this will give a bearish outlook for the next couple of days so far. 1.97-- is highly probable in the next week.

GBP/USD update

GBP/USD broke the 1.9600 level yesterday, and is more likely to reach at least 1.9656 or around that level which is the 50% fibonacci retracement from 1.9914-1.9400 Hi-Lo levels.
For today if you are already on a long position then wait until today's close because more likely that price will go up until the close time.

GBP/USD update

GBP/USD touched the 1.9600 level today. A breakout of this level tomorrow will most likely reach the 1.9657 which is the 50% fibonacci retracement from the 1.9912 - 1.9400 Hi-Lo.

GBP/USD 15 minute chart update

GBP/USD is finding a strong support at 1.9568 and is currently resuming its upward movement. If the 1.9568 remains intact, then this will support my bullish forecast for tomorrow. GBP/USD is at 1.9582 at the time of writing this post.

GBP/USD 15 minute chart

GBP/USD 15 minute chart starts to show mild retracement from the 1.9595 price. As of the time of writing the 1.9568 holds as a strong support, if it breaks, then the retracement will continu to follow untill the pivot level most likely at 1.9538.

The overall speculation is bullish for the GBP/USD, although the reason for the 100 pips spike today is still not known so far.

GBP/USD update

GBP/USD had broken the triangle formed 14 days ago. If the price closed above the current level of 1.9588 (as of the time writing this post), then I think continue its upward movement of at least 1.9670.

Carry Strategy 4 Update

Hello everyone, I am posting an update for my Carry Strategy #4. As usual, you can monitor the performance of the two carry strategies that I am posting on this blog by clicking on the Carry strategy numbers in the label section on the right hand panel of the blog.

I will not be posting any screenshots today, because there is nothing new. The JPY is tsill going down infront of the GBP, and that's thy key for this carry strategy success. Ia m waiting to see when the GBP will start diving in front of the JPY, that's where the real test of this strategy begins.

I am not doing any carry strategies on my live account. The strategies are tested only on demo account from the pretigious broker that have all my loyalty OANDA http://ww.oanda.com

Now with the update.

Account Balance: 5,729.31
Unrealized Profit/Loss: + 3,095.10
Net Asset Value: 8,824.41
That is a total of 729$ interest since November 1st.

The account was opened on November 1st with an initial deposit of 5,000$. No trades have been made to this account at all. For further information and screen shots, just refer to my earlier post on this strategy.

Useful Metatrader indicators-Pivot All Levels

From Investopedia.com

Pivot points are yet another useful tool that can be added to any trader's toolbox. It enables anyone to quickly calculate levels that are likely to cause price movement. The success of a pivot-point system, however, lies squarely on the shoulders of the trader, on his or her ability to effectively use the pivot-point systems in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis. These other technical indicators can be anything from MACD crossovers to candlestick patterns - the greater the number of positive indications, the greater the chances for success.

You can download it here

Just a quick clarification.

Hello again everyone. I would like to clarify that this blog is not specific for carry strategies. I am a pure technical guy. I am currently long on GBP/USD by the way. So, as a part of my blogging I will be providing an up to date analysis of a coupe of carry trade strategies.

Second Carry Strategy

Hello everyone,

Welcome again. Today I am going to post screenshots of my second carry strategy in this blog, which I call it "carry strategy 1". You can always locate the posts corresponding to this strategy in the future by clicking on the Label "Carry strategy 1" Located at the ed of this post. This will show you all the posts related to this strategy.


The first screenshot show the account positions summary. It is similar to Carry Strategy 4, with only one modification is that I sometimes close the +positions and open another ones with the same unit size.

The second screen shot is showing the account Exposure summary.

The third screen shot is showing the account summary since it was opened in November 18th and not November the 1st as the "Carry 4 Strategy". You can easily know the difference between the interest profit and the actual position closure profits by subtracting the Relaised Profit/Loss from the balance. That way, you will get the actual interest that was credited to this account since November 18th.

How to easily see the performance of a specific carry strategy

To easily see the performance of a specific carry strategy, or the posts related to it. I will use the label function in Google Blogger. I will label the Carry 4 strategy with the "Carry Strategy 4" and so on....

I am testing nearly 6 strategies, so they will be named correspondingly .

My first carry strategy.

We will call this "Carry 4". I have taken the idea and the ratio of positions from one of the members of the OANDA forums. I have been implementing it since November the 1st. You will see in the account activity I am long GBP/JPY 46,040 Units, I am shorting USD/JPY 23,020 units, and I am shorting GBP/USD 20,000 Units.





So Far I didn't do anything with this strategy after I placed my initial positions, I am just letting the interest profits go. After the recent rate hike in GBP yesterday, I don't know how this will affect the strategy, but we will see in the coming few month. I think I can just cancel the GBP/USD trade now safely, because the interest is equal now.



As you will see in the account activity, I have more than 10% profits as of January 11th 2007.





I am welcoming any comments and suggestions to improve this strategy. I wonder how this strategy will work if the JPY start showing its muscles.