GBP/USD

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.9014
Position:	Buy
Prof-Loss:	-1
Target:	1.9054
Exit:	-

Market Positions Update

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
AUD/USD	Sell	0.7673	-26 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-324 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Daily Commentary for USD

FX Chicago
http://www.fxchi.com

Ready For A Big Move

Tue, 31 Oct 2006 03:37:46 GMT
by Richard Regan

The USD is setting up for a substantial move.  After days of continued downtrend, we see a tight range consolidation.  This is almost always the sign of high volatility to come.  The obvious play is to get on board in whichever direction it breaksout/down from todays range.  But don't get fooled by a quick move that appears to be the start of the trend.  Be patient and make sure an abundance of buyers or sellers have entered the market, then just look to get good prices and ride the trend.  News came out today on the personal spending accompanied by comments from Fed Governer Lacker indicating a strong US economy.  As my traders pointed out to me today, after a big down move, if good news comes out, and the USD does not rally, shouldn't we look for a big short on any negative US news?  The answer is yes, but there is no need to develop a bias right now.  Just make sure you recognize it relatively early and stay in the direction of the move.

CONSOLIDATION RANGES:

EUR/USD:  1.2705-1.2740

USD/JPY:  117.20-117.70

The GBP/USD already made a nice upmove today, while other currencies remained flat against the USD.  I would steer clear of this pair until we see some more developments.  Nice resistance just before and around 1.9100.

Still plenty of economic releases and speeches this week.  I still believe that the probability of big moves is high this week.  My currency pair of choice to watch this week USD/JPY.  Good luck.

Market Position Update

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Market Positions Update

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Forex Technical Analysis

KBC Bank
http://www.kbc.be/dealingroom

EUR/USD:(1.2720) Above channel top off 1.2939 and ST double bottom

Mon, 30 Oct 2006 14:20:30 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk

Above channel top off 1.2629 and ST Double Bottom off 1.2642 (see graph: potential at 1.2762/ 1.2800).

 1st Support area at 1.2714/ .02 (daily envelope/ ST break-up daily), with next levels at 1.2691 (ST break-up hourly), ahead of 1.2661/ .42 (Friday's low/ see graph + break-up weekly) and 1.2621/ .18(ST break-up hourly/ weekly envelope): ideal area to stay above to keep current better mood on € intact.

 Inability to hold would see next level at 1.2597 (daily MT MA↑): difficult on 1st tests. Resistance area at 1.2732/ 1.2750 (today's high? + reinstalled daily Downtrendline off high/ last week high), with next levels at 1.2762/ .67 (see above/ Oct 03 high + daily Bollinger top). 1.2783/ .2800 = daily Starc top/ 2nd target off 1.2642/ Oct 03 high, where a pause is expected.  

SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
1.2714/ .02 (daily envelope/ see above)	1.2732/ .50 (today's high?/ last week high)
1.2691 (see above)	1.2762/ .67 (see above / Oct 03 high + daily projection
1.2661/ .42 (see above + daily ST MA↑/ see	1.2783/ .2800 (daily Strarc top/ see above + weekly

For in-depth insight on other currency pairs:

• USD/YEN: (117.43) Below channel off 113.96 and the double top off 118.03
• EUR/GBP: (.6703) Channel bottom off .6822 held
• EUR/JPY : (149.33) Back in triangle pattern

Current Market Positions Update

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-300 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-300 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-
Status	Open

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+109 pips
Target:
Exit:	222.50
Status	Closed

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+79 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	149.30
Status	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-100 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-
Status	Open

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+109 pips
Target:
Exit:	222.50
Status	Closed

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+79 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	149.30
Status	Closed

Market Positions Update

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-305 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+25 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+16 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Technical Summary for Majors by Slobodan Drvenica

Technical Summary for Majors

Fri, 27 Oct 2006 14:09:56 GMT
by Slobodan Drvenica

EURUSD

The latest push higher broke through 1.2712, today's high / trendline resistance, to extend gains to 1.2745. Further upside is seen towards 1.2755/65, though overbought hourlies warn of corrective pullback. 1.2660 underpins fresh rallies.

Res: 1.2779, 1.2806, 1.2840, 1.2850

Sup: 1.2745, 1.2733, 1.2710, 1.2695

GBPUSD

Surged through 1.8923, today's high, to dent 1.9000 barrier, with 1.9001 being reached so far, just under 1.9017, 11 week trendline resistance. Break there is required to open further gains towards 1.9025/40, possibly 1.9075 on a break. Extremely overbought hourly studies warn of correction before fresh rally. 1.8925/00 offers initial support.

Res: 1.9017, 1.9025, 1.9040, 1.9075

Sup: 1.8954, 1.8925, 1.8903, 1.8880

USDJPY

Rallied strongly this morning, following correction from 116.82, 22 Aug previous high, to 116.07, 23 Aug low. Breach of 116.82 resistance has triggered fresh gains above 117.00 to reach 117.24 high so far. Further gains are seen towards 117.37/85 25/19 July highs. Overbought hourlies warn of correction, though 116.35/15 expected to contain dips and maintain bulls.

Res: 117.37, 117.55, 117.85, 118.00

Sup: 116.82, 116.65, 116.35, 116.15

USDCHF

Continues to trend higher from 1.2181, 21 Aug low, with yesterday's renewed strength from 1.2306 higher low, extending gains to 1.2404 high so far. Corrective pullback is underway, with 1.2350/20 area offering underpinning fresh advance. Break above 1.2404 opens 1.2443, 15 Aug high, next.

Res: 1.2404, 1.2425, 1.2443, 1.2465

Sup: 1.2350, 1.2338, 1.2320, 1.2290

Market Update

GBP/JPY bears resurfaced today after an extremely overbought market. The pair should resume the downward trend on Monday.

Positions update

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-186 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-46 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-26 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Positions Update

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-140 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+6 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-2 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

E-Forex.RO Analysis

Thursday 26-10-2006

EUR/USD The Euro rallied on yesterday as a result of the FOMC meeting, resuming the rise during today Asian session. The break of the 1.2600 resistance confirmed the bullish momentum on the daily charts. Resistance is now formed by 1.2640 which is being tested at the time of this writing and 1.2660 higher. Resistance also emerges at 1.2700. The downward trendline resistance formed on the daily charts is now seen around 1.2650. Support is formed by 1.2600 on first place, backed by 1.2575 and 1.2525. We are expecting the Euro to face a solid barrier at 1.2660. Current quote is 1.2636 @ 03:20 GMT Recommended trades: Short in the 1.2660 area, stop above 1.2690, objectives at and below 1.2600.

Current Positions

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-100 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-8 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-2 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

GBP/USD Position Update

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-100 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Top Economic Events Release Associated Volatility

FXAnalytics
http://fxanalytics.fxstreet.com/

October 31st 2006: This is a very high event risk day

Wed, 25 Oct 2006 11:09:05 GMT
by John Putman

Employment Cost Index

Event Risk – Low

Forecasted Release Volatility – within Daily Average True Range.

Chicago PMI

Event Risk – Medium/High

Forecasted Release Volatility – within Daily Average True Range.

This release will often exceed DATR but has lately had a muted impact on the actual direction of the dollar.

Consumer Confidence

Event Risk – Low

Forecasted Release Volatility – within Daily Average True Range.

Daily Forex Technical Report

ActionForex.com
http://www.actionforex.com

Wed, 25 Oct 2006 14:44:33 GMT
by ActionForex.com Team

Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Dollar Softer, FOMC Awaited

Dollar continues to trade with an undertone today as traders awaits FOMC rate announcement. Euro was boosted slightly earlier today after stronger than expected German Ifo business sentiment which rose to 105.3 to Oct. Disappointing Existing home sales, which dropped more than expected by 1.9% to 6.18m annualized rate is adding some weights to the greenback too. Both impact on the market is limited as traders are still cautious ahead of the FOMC statement.

As mentioned before, expectation has been built up for hawkish fed statement despite keeping range unchanged at 5.25%. However, the major question remains on market's reaction and it's doubtful on how hawkish the Fed is needed to sound to keep dollar buyers jumping in. An hawkish statement that stress the persistently high core inflation will likely spike higher the greenback. But, if no sustained buying, we could see an equally sharp reversal as selling-on-news comes into dominance. Beware of the volatility.

RBNZ is expected to keep overnight cash rate unchanged at 7.25% in the coming Asian session.

Read full report (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY) here.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.07; (P) 119.35; (R1) 119.62; More

USD/JPY's retreat from 119.64 reaches 118.98 but is still supported by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 118.98). As discussed before, short term risk remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 118.54 support. Firm break above 119.86 will indicate recent rally has resumed for 121.38 high.

However, below 118.54 support will indicate rebound from 118.04 has completed and bring retest of 118.04 low. Break will indicate corrective fall from 119.86 has resumed and should bring testing of 117.37 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 108.99 to 119.86 at 117.29, 55 days EMA at 117.51, short term rising channel at 117.49).

In the bigger picture, with multi-year trend line resistance (147.68 to 135.20 then to 121.38) broken, the strong medium term rise from 108.99 could either be resumption of the year long up trend from 101.65 to 121.38, in other words, the correction from 121.38 has totally finished at 108.99 already. Or it could just be part of the consolidation that started at 121.38. But in either case, a retest of 121.38 high should be seen.

However, firm break below 117.37 cluster support will be the first signal that whole medium term rally from 108.99 has completed and deeper decline should be seen towards outer channel line (now at 115.43) first.

Today’s Focus: EURUSD & GBPUSD

Today’s Focus: EURUSD & GBPUSD

Wed, 25 Oct 2006 12:43:41 GMT
by Mohammed Isah

EUR Continues To Hold Below 1.2613/341 Zone

EURUSD-EUR continues to hold below 1.2613/41 levels since it rejected higher-level prices and sold off on Monday. This suggests that it is still maintaining its short-term negative outlook and an attack on its Jun/July’06 lows at the 1.2477/59 zone cannot be ruled out. If a penetration and negation of these levels are seen, EUR could be targeting 1.2333/25 levels, its Jan/April’06 high and its Mar’06 high at 1.2210 ahead of its range breakout price target at 1.2000 area established by measuring the width of the range and projecting it from the breakout point. Both the RSI indicator, which is pushing to the down and the patterns of lower highs and lower lows now seen on the daily chart support the above scenario.Conversely,a sustained violation of the 1.2613/41(Sept’06 lows/Oct 19’06 high) levels is required to invalidate the above view. In such a situation,EUR would push towards its oct’06 high at 1.2765 and Sept 22’06 high at 1.2830.On the whole, as long as EUR holds below 1.2613/41 levels, a challenge and a possible break below its broader range bottom is possible.

Support Comments
1.2459/77 Jun/July’06 lows
1.2333/25 April 19'06 low
1.2210 Mar’06 high
1.2000 Broader range breakout price target

Resistance Comments
1.2560/80 Oct 10’06 high/200 ema/Sept 26’06 low
1.2639/29 Sept’06 lows/.618 Ret (July-Aug rally)
1.2714 100 ema
1.2830/79 Aug 31’06 high/Sept’06 highs

GBP Looks Vulnerable To The Downside

GBPUSD- GBP remains vulnerable to further downside price losses following its recent failure at the 1.8858/88 zone (Oct 20&04’06 highs). Such a failure implies that its last week gains were both corrective and also a reaction to an oversold condition following its recent decline to 2.5 months low at 1.8511.On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.8632/02,its Sept’06 lows followed by 1.8522/11,its Oct’06 lows. A close below these levels targets 1.8384, its July 25’06 low ahead of its July/Jun’06 lows at 1.8175/1.8088.Daily RSI indicator remains in support of GBP’s downside price losses as it is negative and pointing to the downside. On the other hand, a close above 1.8897/1.8946 (Oct’06 high/broken rising trendline) would be needed to reverse the above situation. If seen, this will put the pair in position to challenge its year-to-date high at 1.9143.On the whole, maintaining below its recent high at 1.8858 puts pressure on GBP for further downside price losses in the days and weeks ahead.

Support Comments
1.8602/32 Sept 29’06 lows
1.8492/1.8511 .618 Ret/Oct 10’06 low
1.8389 July 26’06 low
1.8175 July’06 low

Resistance Comments
1.8739/39 Oct 17&18'06
1.8918/1.8884 Sept 14’06 highs
1.9000 Psychological Resistance
1.9088/1.9143 Aug’06 high

Market update from SaxoBank

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-83 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

SaxoBank Analysis

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION

EUR

Stronger than expected IFO figures, but lower than expected Import Prices this morning. German CPI figures have been coming out at a rather high level today. All in, the EUR might be supported short-term by data, but the market thinks the FOMC Statement will be more important tonight.

USD

Richmond Fed disappointed yesterday, but Core Inflation in the US has been uncomfortably high lately. Thus, we expect "no change" tonight, but also a Statement that is moderately hawkish and expressing concerns over the trend in core inflation figures.

JPY

Is there too much complacency in the use of JPY as a funding currency in Carry Trades? Watch out for the short end of the JPY yield curve. Last time it spiked higher, we saw a lot of turmoil in Emerging Markets and some jittery JPY trading (not really strength). We could soon see more rate speculation in Japan. The release of the Trade Balance this morning should not have any noticeable impact on JPY, but the FOMC Rate Announcement might result in some movements.

CHF

Still the European equivalent of JPY. The quite good figures lately have not been able to help CHF out of its bearish trend.

GBP

A strong come-back this morning - especially vs. AUD. Might go higher on that note. Note that GBPAUD broke the important 2.4650 level, which we still maintain in the FX Order Book (see below). The cross is in our opinion still a sell, but contigent of a break of 0.76 in AUDUSD.

CAD

There is a lot of noise in the market over a seemingly record high short position of CAD. We might be in for a short-squeeze, which would fit quite handsomely with the soft landing theme and further AUD strength.

AUD

Was the bullish trend in the AUD-crosses running into a brick-wall this morning? Perhaps 0.76 in AUDUSD is still capping the upside in other crosses. We are close to breaking that level and that might result in a blow-off in overnight trading.

NZD

Finally, looking like a real turnaround. The CPI figures were lower than expected o/n and we are now waiting for the RBNZ Rate Decision tonight. We expect no change like a big minority of analysts. Why? Because inflation has clearly come down from its rather elevated level in 2Q and because NZ policy makers are usually not keen to help the NZD going higher. Officials are more likely to come out and bad-mouth their own currency like they use to.

GBP/USD Position Update

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-83 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

GBP/USD position update

Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-64 pips
Target:	-
Exit	-

GBP/USD update

Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-60 pips
Target:	-

GBP/USD Update

Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-73 pips
Target:	-

The position is now at -73 pips loss, but this may all be a corrective move. The market is waiting for tomorrow's FOMC meeting. I am still hanging in there to the see the daily closure price as of today.

GBP/USD update

Sell Order GBP/USD @ 1.8675 triggered.

Position update: -71 pips

Sell Order GBP/USD Triggered

Sell Order GBP/USD @ 1.8675 triggered.

Current position: -34 pips

GBP/USD Limit Order

Sell Order GBP/USD @ 1.8675 Take Profit: Open

EUR/USD update

EUR/USD did not break OR even reach the 1.2643 level, but instead it fell down to the 1.2540 level. Stay tuned for what is going to happen at the end of today.
Recomended trades: No position

EUR/USD consolidating

EUR/USD is consolidating now at 1.2615-1.2620. If the price breaks 1.2642 major resistance, then I assume that it will go to 1.2690 level easily. Although if it reached this evel, then reversal sig will more likely be triggered. Stay tuned for Monday tomorrow for the price movement.

Buy Limit Eur/USD @ 1.2643 TP 1.2663

Buy Limit Eur/USD @ 1.2643 TP 1.2663

GBP/USD analysis for next week 23-27 October 2006

GBP/USD formed a strong bottom on 1.8520. The reversal pattern was augmented by oversold oscillator indicator.

Now GBP/USD faces a strong resistance at 1.8883 which represents the 50.0 Fibonnaci retracement from last month.

Suggestions:
Stay away from market until a reversal or continuatin of the bull trend occurs.

Expectations:
A strong reversal will occur around 1.8880 level.

 

Hello Everyone and Welcome Back

I will be trying to post again my analysis and my signals for the forex market on GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs. Stay tuned for moe updates.

Analyse this "My performance over a year"

Hi All , This is my performance over a year in the same account in Metatrader.

Yesterday's EUR/USD analysis comment

Yesterday's target was met on 1.1876, now the pair is suspected to retrace for a while before deciding which way to go.

GBP0USD retraces for a while

The cable reached down to 1.7360 around the 23.6 fib retracement of the previous month, now it is forming a weak hummer, so prices are suspected to reach 1.7460 tomorrow or around that at least. Suggested trading: buy now for 20-30 pips or according to your exist strategy.