Second Carry Strategy

Hello everyone,

Welcome again. Today I am going to post screenshots of my second carry strategy in this blog, which I call it "carry strategy 1". You can always locate the posts corresponding to this strategy in the future by clicking on the Label "Carry strategy 1" Located at the ed of this post. This will show you all the posts related to this strategy.


The first screenshot show the account positions summary. It is similar to Carry Strategy 4, with only one modification is that I sometimes close the +positions and open another ones with the same unit size.

The second screen shot is showing the account Exposure summary.

The third screen shot is showing the account summary since it was opened in November 18th and not November the 1st as the "Carry 4 Strategy". You can easily know the difference between the interest profit and the actual position closure profits by subtracting the Relaised Profit/Loss from the balance. That way, you will get the actual interest that was credited to this account since November 18th.

How to easily see the performance of a specific carry strategy

To easily see the performance of a specific carry strategy, or the posts related to it. I will use the label function in Google Blogger. I will label the Carry 4 strategy with the "Carry Strategy 4" and so on....

I am testing nearly 6 strategies, so they will be named correspondingly .

My first carry strategy.

We will call this "Carry 4". I have taken the idea and the ratio of positions from one of the members of the OANDA forums. I have been implementing it since November the 1st. You will see in the account activity I am long GBP/JPY 46,040 Units, I am shorting USD/JPY 23,020 units, and I am shorting GBP/USD 20,000 Units.





So Far I didn't do anything with this strategy after I placed my initial positions, I am just letting the interest profits go. After the recent rate hike in GBP yesterday, I don't know how this will affect the strategy, but we will see in the coming few month. I think I can just cancel the GBP/USD trade now safely, because the interest is equal now.



As you will see in the account activity, I have more than 10% profits as of January 11th 2007.





I am welcoming any comments and suggestions to improve this strategy. I wonder how this strategy will work if the JPY start showing its muscles.

Carry Trade strategies.

Hello everyone,

Since the beginning of November 2006, and I am testing a few carry trade strategies. Although I am not a big fan of carry trades, I noticed some of them are working until now with decent profits. Ia m gonna post the progress of these strategies from now on. Though, I am not recommending any of them because I noticed that most of them are just depending on a falling USD to succeed, but I am still in the process of testing them.

What a wonderful 4 months for carry traders.

GBP/USD

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.9014
Position:	Buy
Prof-Loss:	-1
Target:	1.9054
Exit:	-

Market Positions Update

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
AUD/USD	Sell	0.7673	-26 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-324 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Daily Commentary for USD

FX Chicago
http://www.fxchi.com

Ready For A Big Move

Tue, 31 Oct 2006 03:37:46 GMT
by Richard Regan

The USD is setting up for a substantial move.  After days of continued downtrend, we see a tight range consolidation.  This is almost always the sign of high volatility to come.  The obvious play is to get on board in whichever direction it breaksout/down from todays range.  But don't get fooled by a quick move that appears to be the start of the trend.  Be patient and make sure an abundance of buyers or sellers have entered the market, then just look to get good prices and ride the trend.  News came out today on the personal spending accompanied by comments from Fed Governer Lacker indicating a strong US economy.  As my traders pointed out to me today, after a big down move, if good news comes out, and the USD does not rally, shouldn't we look for a big short on any negative US news?  The answer is yes, but there is no need to develop a bias right now.  Just make sure you recognize it relatively early and stay in the direction of the move.

CONSOLIDATION RANGES:

EUR/USD:  1.2705-1.2740

USD/JPY:  117.20-117.70

The GBP/USD already made a nice upmove today, while other currencies remained flat against the USD.  I would steer clear of this pair until we see some more developments.  Nice resistance just before and around 1.9100.

Still plenty of economic releases and speeches this week.  I still believe that the probability of big moves is high this week.  My currency pair of choice to watch this week USD/JPY.  Good luck.

Market Position Update

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Market Positions Update

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Forex Technical Analysis

KBC Bank
http://www.kbc.be/dealingroom

EUR/USD:(1.2720) Above channel top off 1.2939 and ST double bottom

Mon, 30 Oct 2006 14:20:30 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk

Above channel top off 1.2629 and ST Double Bottom off 1.2642 (see graph: potential at 1.2762/ 1.2800).

 1st Support area at 1.2714/ .02 (daily envelope/ ST break-up daily), with next levels at 1.2691 (ST break-up hourly), ahead of 1.2661/ .42 (Friday's low/ see graph + break-up weekly) and 1.2621/ .18(ST break-up hourly/ weekly envelope): ideal area to stay above to keep current better mood on € intact.

 Inability to hold would see next level at 1.2597 (daily MT MA↑): difficult on 1st tests. Resistance area at 1.2732/ 1.2750 (today's high? + reinstalled daily Downtrendline off high/ last week high), with next levels at 1.2762/ .67 (see above/ Oct 03 high + daily Bollinger top). 1.2783/ .2800 = daily Starc top/ 2nd target off 1.2642/ Oct 03 high, where a pause is expected.  

SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
1.2714/ .02 (daily envelope/ see above)	1.2732/ .50 (today's high?/ last week high)
1.2691 (see above)	1.2762/ .67 (see above / Oct 03 high + daily projection
1.2661/ .42 (see above + daily ST MA↑/ see	1.2783/ .2800 (daily Strarc top/ see above + weekly

For in-depth insight on other currency pairs:

• USD/YEN: (117.43) Below channel off 113.96 and the double top off 118.03
• EUR/GBP: (.6703) Channel bottom off .6822 held
• EUR/JPY : (149.33) Back in triangle pattern

Current Market Positions Update

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-340 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

Currency:	Position	Entry	Pro/Loss	Trgt/Exit	Status
GBP/USD	Sell	1.8675	-300 pips		Open
GBP/JPY	Sell	223.59	+109 pips	222.50	Closed
EUR/JPY	Sell	150.09	+79 pips	149.30	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-300 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-
Status	Open

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+109 pips
Target:
Exit:	222.50
Status	Closed

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+79 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	149.30
Status	Closed

Current Market Positions Update

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-100 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-
Status	Open

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+109 pips
Target:
Exit:	222.50
Status	Closed

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+79 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	149.30
Status	Closed

Market Positions Update

Currency:	GBP/USD
Entry Level:	1.8675
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	-305 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	GBP/JPY
Entry Level:	223.59
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+25 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Currency:	EUR/JPY
Entry Level:	150.09
Position:	Sell
Prof-Loss:	+16 pips
Target:	-
Exit:	-

Technical Summary for Majors by Slobodan Drvenica

Technical Summary for Majors

Fri, 27 Oct 2006 14:09:56 GMT
by Slobodan Drvenica

EURUSD

The latest push higher broke through 1.2712, today's high / trendline resistance, to extend gains to 1.2745. Further upside is seen towards 1.2755/65, though overbought hourlies warn of corrective pullback. 1.2660 underpins fresh rallies.

Res: 1.2779, 1.2806, 1.2840, 1.2850

Sup: 1.2745, 1.2733, 1.2710, 1.2695

GBPUSD

Surged through 1.8923, today's high, to dent 1.9000 barrier, with 1.9001 being reached so far, just under 1.9017, 11 week trendline resistance. Break there is required to open further gains towards 1.9025/40, possibly 1.9075 on a break. Extremely overbought hourly studies warn of correction before fresh rally. 1.8925/00 offers initial support.

Res: 1.9017, 1.9025, 1.9040, 1.9075

Sup: 1.8954, 1.8925, 1.8903, 1.8880

USDJPY

Rallied strongly this morning, following correction from 116.82, 22 Aug previous high, to 116.07, 23 Aug low. Breach of 116.82 resistance has triggered fresh gains above 117.00 to reach 117.24 high so far. Further gains are seen towards 117.37/85 25/19 July highs. Overbought hourlies warn of correction, though 116.35/15 expected to contain dips and maintain bulls.

Res: 117.37, 117.55, 117.85, 118.00

Sup: 116.82, 116.65, 116.35, 116.15

USDCHF

Continues to trend higher from 1.2181, 21 Aug low, with yesterday's renewed strength from 1.2306 higher low, extending gains to 1.2404 high so far. Corrective pullback is underway, with 1.2350/20 area offering underpinning fresh advance. Break above 1.2404 opens 1.2443, 15 Aug high, next.

Res: 1.2404, 1.2425, 1.2443, 1.2465

Sup: 1.2350, 1.2338, 1.2320, 1.2290

Market Update

GBP/JPY bears resurfaced today after an extremely overbought market. The pair should resume the downward trend on Monday.